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Friday, June 15, 2012

A Simple Stress Test of Philippine Commercial Banks

In a fairly recent article entitled "Stress Test Proves Strength of PH Banks", "Philippine banks are seen to survive a disaster in which the various lenders are forced to write off loans as large as PhP 36 billion without asking shareholders, the central bank, or the national government for bailout money."  This assertion stems from a recent stress test conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on all 55 regular and commercial and expanded license banks.

A Real Stress Test?

According to Johnny Noe Ravalo, BSP Managing Director, the balance sheet of Philippine Banks is so strong that they can afford a 20%, 30%, or even a 50% loan write-off and still have the liquidity to survive.  He maintained that the "Philippine banks have built a strong reserve of liquid assets over the years when profits were plowed back to the business instead of being distributed as dividends for shareholders who naturally covet them."  He declared that "even if the banks were forced today to declare half of the PhP 73.2 billion non-performing loans at end January this year as a total loss, all the banks should still be in operation and none the worse for wear the following day."

In a sense, this is true.  NPLs currently comprised PhP 75.272 billion or 10.22% of the Stockholders Equity of the Philippine Commercial Banking System as of December 31, 2011.  So, writing off 50% of the NPLs of the Philippine Commercial Banks would reduce their aggregate stockholders equity by a little more than 5%.  Naturally, some bank would be more affected than others.  The most affected bank is Standard Chartered Bank, a foreign bank whose local subsidiary has little or no capital.  In a crisis, it would rely on its "home-host" arrangement wherein the mother ship (the foreign parent) sends more funds and/or capital when local regulators or counterparties require it.  The other most affected banks would suffer a 15% reduction in their stockholders equity, which is a major but not lethal wound.


Philippine Commercial Banking System
NPL as % of Stockholders Equity
December 31, 2011









NPL SE NPL/SE
Bank (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Standard Chartered Bank 1,143,810,934.02 1,856,348,170.44 61.62%
East West Banking Corporation 3,169,247,787.93 10,917,559,972.25 29.03%
Philippine Veterans Bank 1,543,486,223.32 5,507,366,299.05 28.03%
United Coconut Planters Bank 4,519,229,380.27 17,121,309,535.04 26.40%
Bank of Commerce 4,880,481,979.54 19,441,545,398.92 25.10%
Allied Banking Corporation 3,628,577,654.77 17,967,352,274.08 20.20%
Philippine National Bank 6,845,142,241.65 36,201,856,906.15 18.91%
Citibank N.A. 1,346,895,882.39 7,996,168,491.50 16.84%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 966,921,843.27 5,832,718,641.11 16.58%
Banco De Oro Unibank Inc. 13,070,219,238.94 95,676,345,970.69 13.66%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 642,905,462.12 5,157,316,608.84 12.47%
China Banking Corporation 4,393,439,631.19 35,918,017,352.58 12.23%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. 36,128,448.62 311,778,104.96 11.59%
Development Bank of the Philippines 4,665,876,965.78 41,730,949,783.88 11.18%
Land Bank of the Philippines 6,388,751,649.73 71,614,261,581.45 8.92%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 422,610,253.88 5,327,219,673.85 7.93%
Philippine Bank of Communications 486,698,238.33 6,784,694,870.58 7.17%
Union Bank of the Philippines 2,771,050,598.57 39,452,815,431.78 7.02%
Philippine Trust Company 952,982,284.11 15,005,575,111.71 6.35%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 5,348,790,148.15 84,874,177,942.64 6.30%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 350,699,426.12 5,987,360,440.47 5.86%
Korea Exchange Bank 34,580,218.81 689,757,756.03 5.01%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 5,129,752,265.03 104,631,925,155.96 4.90%
Asia United Bank 403,752,865.13 9,095,224,451.73 4.44%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 1,301,588,159.50 39,700,472,551.33 3.28%
Security Bank Corporation 795,091,934.37 30,393,353,641.87 2.62%
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 8,660,895.91 590,421,824.93 1.47%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 23,339,114.85 2,305,439,007.97 1.01%
Al Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 1,232,146.27 490,480,453.71 0.25%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 862,316,642.64 0.01%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep Bank 89.68 5,416,669,935.75 0.00%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 5,016,379,598.09 0.00%
Bank of America N.A. 0.00 596,946,705.20 0.00%
Deutsche Bank AG 0.00 2,469,949,664.27 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase Bank National Association 0.00 1,571,581,685.25 0.00%
Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd 0.00 462,656,366.02 0.00%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd - Manila Branch 0.00 1,391,811,359.74 0.00%
Grand Total 75,272,069,901.05 736,368,125,362.46 10.22%


Source: www.bsp.gov.ph

But are NPLs the right numbers to look at?  NPLs are at historic lows and, as a result, make up very little of Stockholders Equity.  (See"U/KBs' NPL Ratio at 2.23 Percent"  and "The NPL Ratio of the Philippine Commercial Banking System is at Historic Lows").  The reason for this  is that the Philippine economy is currently doing well and the Philippine Stock Market is at or near its all time highs.

Right now, there are major, major headwinds that could affect the Philippine economy.  For one, Europe's Financial System looks set to implode: "NIALL FERGUSON: 'If There's Going To Be A Lehman Moment In The Crisis, It's Going To Be Next Week'.  Europe, which comprises 25% of the global economy, is already in a recession that promises to get even deeper, dragging down the economies of the USA and China, its major trading partners.  Unemployment in the Eurozone, already at 11%, could go even higher, reducing opportunities for our very own OFWs and lead to a decline in OFW remittances, which powers around 10% of the Philippine economy. (See "OFW Remittances: Boon or Bane?)

Classified Loans

Of course, it is unclear as to how all this will play out.  But focusing on NPL write-offs is not the answer.  In a crisis, a loan that is current can very well become past due, and a past due loan can become a non-performing loan, and a non-performing loan can become a write-off.  The real number to look at are the loans that the banks and BSP already consider doubtful: Classified Loans.

Investopedia.com defines "Classified Loans" as:

"Any bank loan that is in danger of default. Classified loans have unpaid interest and principal outstanding, and it is unclear whether the bank will be able to recoup the loan proceeds from the borrower. Banks usually categorize such loans as adversely classified assets on their books."

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), similar to our very own Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation (PDIC), defines Classified Loans as:

"Loans classified Loss are considered uncollectible and of such little value that their continuance as bankable assets is not warranted. This classification does not mean that the loan has absolutely no recovery or salvage value but rather it is not practical or desirable to defer writing off this basically worthless asset even though partial recovery may be effected in the future."

It is not clear as to how the BSP defines Classified Loans but their definition should hew very closely to the FDIC's own definition.

As of December 31, 2011, "Classified Loans and Other Risky Assets" of the Philippine Commercial Banking System amounted to PhP 290.712 billion or almost four times the size of the commercial banking NPLs of PhP 75.272 billion as of the same period.  Consequently, any write-offs of classified loans will have almost four times the impact of an NPL write-off.


Philippine Commercial Banking System
NPLs vs. Classified Loans
December 31, 2011









NPLs Classified Loans NPLs/Classified Loans

(In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Bank of America N.A. 0.00 6,655,115.17 0.00%
Deutsche Bank AG 0.00 535,739,862.42 0.00%
Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd 0.00 261,635,432.32 0.00%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd - Manila Branch 0.00 17,594,258.54 0.00%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep Bank 89.68 446,928,750.00 0.00%
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 8,660,895.91 4,392,362,534.97 0.20%
Al Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 1,232,146.27 72,205,000.00 1.71%
Security Bank Corporation 795,091,934.37 10,587,883,000.00 7.51%
Asia United Bank 403,752,865.13 4,407,070,966.35 9.16%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 1,301,588,159.50 12,821,363,313.72 10.15%
Korea Exchange Bank 34,580,218.81 337,178,641.21 10.26%
United Coconut Planters Bank 4,519,229,380.27 31,164,000,000.00 14.50%
Union Bank of the Philippines 2,771,050,598.57 18,471,433,916.26 15.00%
Bank of Commerce 4,880,481,979.54 23,738,866,000.00 20.56%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 5,129,752,265.03 24,291,710,617.11 21.12%
Philippine National Bank 6,845,142,241.65 31,657,551,310.54 21.62%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 23,339,114.85 107,892,867.01 21.63%
Citibank N.A. 1,346,895,882.39 6,014,862,000.00 22.39%
Philippine Veterans Bank 1,543,486,223.32 6,749,026,000.00 22.87%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 5,348,790,148.15 21,917,010,317.25 24.40%
Philippine Trust Company 952,982,284.11 3,631,933,925.26 26.24%
Land Bank of the Philippines 6,388,751,649.73 20,724,547,682.94 30.83%
China Banking Corporation 4,393,439,631.19 11,948,118,163.29 36.77%
Standard Chartered Bank 1,143,810,934.02 2,697,797,647.30 42.40%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 642,905,462.12 1,471,236,517.10 43.70%
Allied Banking Corporation 3,628,577,654.77 8,160,196,816.62 44.47%
Banco De Oro Unibank Inc. 13,070,219,238.94 29,347,875,358.34 44.54%
Development Bank of the Philippines 4,665,876,965.78 9,056,169,695.18 51.52%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 422,610,253.88 571,583,000.00 73.94%
East West Banking Corporation 3,169,247,787.93 3,693,052,000.00 85.82%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. 36,128,448.62 36,128,448.62 100.00%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 125,938.80 100.00%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 966,921,843.27 883,864,929.14 109.40%
Philippine Bank of Communications 486,698,238.33 350,916,466.48 138.69%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 350,699,426.12 139,905,087.50 250.67%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 0.00 NA
JP Morgan Chase Bank National Association 0.00 0.00 NA
Grand Total 75,272,069,901.05 290,712,421,579.44 25.89%



Source: www.bsp.gov.ph

This level of classified loans should be measured against the bank's "capital cushion" or its ability to absorb losses.  Capital Cushion is normally defined as a bank's "Tangible Common Equity" plus its Loan Loss Reserves.  Tangible Common Equity (TCE) refers to the subset of shareholders' equity that is not preferred equity and not intangible assets.  So it excludes such items as Hybrid equity (like preferred shares) and goodwill.

By this measure, the level of "Classified Loans and other Risky Assets" amounts to 40.40% of the PhP 719.672 billion in Total Capital Cushion of Philippine Commercial Banks as of December 31, 2011.


Philippine Commercial Banking System
Classified Loans as % of Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011









Classified Loans Total Capital Cushion
Bank (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,392,362,534.97 667,407,891.01 658.12%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 5,800,229,638.98 537.29%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 5,758,728,657.92 117.20%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 20,301,508,621.47 116.93%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,697,797,647.30 2,908,588,837.93 92.75%
Philippine National Bank 31,657,551,310.54 41,647,300,624.97 76.01%
Korea Exchange Bank 337,178,641.21 578,363,678.20 58.30%
Citibank N.A. 6,014,862,000.00 13,034,219,335.58 46.15%
Asia United Bank Corporation 4,407,070,966.35 9,561,736,538.00 46.09%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 18,859,833,076.12 43.27%
Land Bank of the Philippines 20,724,547,682.94 50,944,842,479.97 40.68%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 26,070,438,913.08 40.61%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,471,433,916.26 45,506,545,040.66 40.59%
Deutsche Bank AG 535,739,862.42 1,452,441,813.31 36.89%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 12,821,363,313.72 37,298,479,029.45 34.38%
Mega International Commercial Bank Company Limited 261,635,432.32 790,652,611.40 33.09%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 11,662,142,632.92 31.67%
China Banking Corporation 11,948,118,163.29 41,406,720,599.32 28.86%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,917,010,317.25 78,556,544,290.98 27.90%
Banco De Oro Unibank 29,347,875,358.34 108,776,275,232.51 26.98%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,471,236,517.10 5,512,890,428.32 26.69%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,056,169,695.18 35,788,905,692.76 25.30%
Philippine Trust Company 3,631,933,925.26 14,631,348,671.35 24.82%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 24,291,710,617.11 101,261,532,842.48 23.99%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,864,929.14 5,560,159,799.26 15.90%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 72,205,000.00 532,866,747.85 13.55%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 5,226,473,730.40 10.94%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd 36,128,448.62 343,328,437.00 10.52%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 446,928,750.00 5,491,404,385.19 8.14%
Philippine Bank of Communications 350,916,466.48 5,915,638,902.18 5.93%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 107,892,867.01 2,540,823,202.04 4.25%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 139,905,087.50 6,036,104,571.35 2.32%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 602,446,709.20 1.10%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. - Manila Branch 17,594,258.54 1,613,521,298.76 1.09%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 1,075,343,701.11 0.01%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 4,534,582,971.11 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase National Bank Association 0.00 1,421,836,000.00 0.00%
Grand Total 290,712,421,579.44 719,672,207,634.14 40.40%


Source: www.bsp.gov.ph

Stress Test Scenarios

Aggregate

So how will a 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and even 50% write-off of Classified Loans affect the Total Capital Cushion of the Philippine Commercial Banking System?

In the aggregate, if classified loans amount to 40.40% of the commercial banking system's total capital cushion, then it follows that a 10% write-off of classified loans will reduce the total capital by 4.04% and a 50% write-off of classified loans will reduce the commercial banking system's total capital cushion by 20.20%.

Individual Banks

Under this scenario, a 10% and 20% write-off of classified loans could totally wipe out the total capital cushion of two banks:

  1. Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch (65.81% to 131.62% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. United Coconut Planters Bank (53.73% to 107.46% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
A 30% write-off of Classified Loans will severely affect (reduce by 30% or more) the total capital cushion of two more banks:

  1. Philippine Veterans Bank (35.16% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Bank of Commerce (35.08% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
A 40% and 50% write-off of Classified Loans will severely affect two more banks:
  1. Standard Chartered Bank (37.10% to 46.38% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Philippine National Bank (30.41% to 38.01% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
Please bear in mind that a number of these banks are already very weak and are in distress.  See a previous blog post "Philippine Commercial Banks Show Improvement at Year End 2011".  Moreover, their capital can be overstated.  See a previous blog post "Philippine Commercial Banks with Overstated Capital as of December 31, 2011".  As such, any reduction in their capital cushion could knock down an already weak bank.


Philippine Commercial Banking System
Classified Loans as % of Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011

















Classified Loans Total Capital Cushion Impact of 10% Loss on Total Capital Cushion Impact of 20% Loss on Total Capital Cushion Impact of 30% Loss on Total Capital Cushion Impact of 40% Loss on Total Capital Cushion Impact of 50% Loss on Total Capital Cushion
Bank (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %) (In %) (In %) (In %) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,392,362,534.97 667,407,891.01 65.81% 131.62% 197.44% 263.25% 329.06%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 5,800,229,638.98 53.73% 107.46% 161.19% 214.92% 268.64%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 5,758,728,657.92 11.72% 23.44% 35.16% 46.88% 58.60%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 20,301,508,621.47 11.69% 23.39% 35.08% 46.77% 58.47%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,697,797,647.30 2,908,588,837.93 9.28% 18.55% 27.83% 37.10% 46.38%
Philippine National Bank 31,657,551,310.54 41,647,300,624.97 7.60% 15.20% 22.80% 30.41% 38.01%
Korea Exchange Bank 337,178,641.21 578,363,678.20 5.83% 11.66% 17.49% 23.32% 29.15%
Citibank N.A. 6,014,862,000.00 13,034,219,335.58 4.61% 9.23% 13.84% 18.46% 23.07%
Asia United Bank Corporation 4,407,070,966.35 9,561,736,538.00 4.61% 9.22% 13.83% 18.44% 23.05%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 18,859,833,076.12 4.33% 8.65% 12.98% 17.31% 21.63%
Land Bank of the Philippines 20,724,547,682.94 50,944,842,479.97 4.07% 8.14% 12.20% 16.27% 20.34%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 26,070,438,913.08 4.06% 8.12% 12.18% 16.25% 20.31%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,471,433,916.26 45,506,545,040.66 4.06% 8.12% 12.18% 16.24% 20.30%
Deutsche Bank AG 535,739,862.42 1,452,441,813.31 3.69% 7.38% 11.07% 14.75% 18.44%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 12,821,363,313.72 37,298,479,029.45 3.44% 6.88% 10.31% 13.75% 17.19%
Mega International Commercial Bank Company Limited 261,635,432.32 790,652,611.40 3.31% 6.62% 9.93% 13.24% 16.55%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 11,662,142,632.92 3.17% 6.33% 9.50% 12.67% 15.83%
China Banking Corporation 11,948,118,163.29 41,406,720,599.32 2.89% 5.77% 8.66% 11.54% 14.43%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,917,010,317.25 78,556,544,290.98 2.79% 5.58% 8.37% 11.16% 13.95%
Banco De Oro Unibank 29,347,875,358.34 108,776,275,232.51 2.70% 5.40% 8.09% 10.79% 13.49%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,471,236,517.10 5,512,890,428.32 2.67% 5.34% 8.01% 10.67% 13.34%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,056,169,695.18 35,788,905,692.76 2.53% 5.06% 7.59% 10.12% 12.65%
Philippine Trust Company 3,631,933,925.26 14,631,348,671.35 2.48% 4.96% 7.45% 9.93% 12.41%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 24,291,710,617.11 101,261,532,842.48 2.40% 4.80% 7.20% 9.60% 11.99%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,864,929.14 5,560,159,799.26 1.59% 3.18% 4.77% 6.36% 7.95%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 72,205,000.00 532,866,747.85 1.36% 2.71% 4.07% 5.42% 6.78%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 5,226,473,730.40 1.09% 2.19% 3.28% 4.37% 5.47%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd 36,128,448.62 343,328,437.00 1.05% 2.10% 3.16% 4.21% 5.26%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 446,928,750.00 5,491,404,385.19 0.81% 1.63% 2.44% 3.26% 4.07%
Philippine Bank of Communications 350,916,466.48 5,915,638,902.18 0.59% 1.19% 1.78% 2.37% 2.97%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 107,892,867.01 2,540,823,202.04 0.42% 0.85% 1.27% 1.70% 2.12%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 139,905,087.50 6,036,104,571.35 0.23% 0.46% 0.70% 0.93% 1.16%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 602,446,709.20 0.11% 0.22% 0.33% 0.44% 0.55%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. - Manila Branch 17,594,258.54 1,613,521,298.76 0.11% 0.22% 0.33% 0.44% 0.55%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 1,075,343,701.11 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 4,534,582,971.11 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase National Bank Association 0.00 1,421,836,000.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grand Total 290,712,421,579.44 719,672,207,634.14 4.04% 8.08% 12.12% 16.16% 20.20%

Source: www.bsp.gov.ph


Philippine Commercial Banking System
Impact of 10% Loss on Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011











Classified Loans 10% Loss Total Capital Cushion Impact of 10% Loss on Total Capital Cushion

(In PHP) (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,392,362,534.97 439,236,253.50 667,407,891.01 65.81%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 3,116,400,000.00 5,800,229,638.98 53.73%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 674,902,600.00 5,758,728,657.92 11.72%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 2,373,886,600.00 20,301,508,621.47 11.69%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,697,797,647.30 269,779,764.73 2,908,588,837.93 9.28%
Philippine National Bank 31,657,551,310.54 3,165,755,131.05 41,647,300,624.97 7.60%
Korea Exchange Bank 337,178,641.21 33,717,864.12 578,363,678.20 5.83%
Citibank N.A. 6,014,862,000.00 601,486,200.00 13,034,219,335.58 4.61%
Asia United Bank Corporation 4,407,070,966.35 440,707,096.64 9,561,736,538.00 4.61%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 816,019,681.66 18,859,833,076.12 4.33%
Land Bank of the Philippines 20,724,547,682.94 2,072,454,768.29 50,944,842,479.97 4.07%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 1,058,788,300.00 26,070,438,913.08 4.06%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,471,433,916.26 1,847,143,391.63 45,506,545,040.66 4.06%
Deutsche Bank AG 535,739,862.42 53,573,986.24 1,452,441,813.31 3.69%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 12,821,363,313.72 1,282,136,331.37 37,298,479,029.45 3.44%
Mega International Commercial Bank Company Limited 261,635,432.32 26,163,543.23 790,652,611.40 3.31%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 369,305,200.00 11,662,142,632.92 3.17%
China Banking Corporation 11,948,118,163.29 1,194,811,816.33 41,406,720,599.32 2.89%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,917,010,317.25 2,191,701,031.73 78,556,544,290.98 2.79%
Banco De Oro Unibank 29,347,875,358.34 2,934,787,535.83 108,776,275,232.51 2.70%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,471,236,517.10 147,123,651.71 5,512,890,428.32 2.67%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,056,169,695.18 905,616,969.52 35,788,905,692.76 2.53%
Philippine Trust Company 3,631,933,925.26 363,193,392.53 14,631,348,671.35 2.48%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 24,291,710,617.11 2,429,171,061.71 101,261,532,842.48 2.40%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,864,929.14 88,386,492.91 5,560,159,799.26 1.59%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 72,205,000.00 7,220,500.00 532,866,747.85 1.36%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 57,158,300.00 5,226,473,730.40 1.09%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd 36,128,448.62 3,612,844.86 343,328,437.00 1.05%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 446,928,750.00 44,692,875.00 5,491,404,385.19 0.81%
Philippine Bank of Communications 350,916,466.48 35,091,646.65 5,915,638,902.18 0.59%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 107,892,867.01 10,789,286.70 2,540,823,202.04 0.42%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 139,905,087.50 13,990,508.75 6,036,104,571.35 0.23%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 665,511.52 602,446,709.20 0.11%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. - Manila Branch 17,594,258.54 1,759,425.85 1,613,521,298.76 0.11%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 12,593.88 1,075,343,701.11 0.00%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 0.00 4,534,582,971.11 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase National Bank Association 0.00 0.00 1,421,836,000.00 0.00%
Grand Total 290,712,421,579.44 29,071,242,157.94 719,672,207,634.14 4.04%

Source: www.bsp.gov.ph


Philippine Commercial Banking System
Impact of 20% Loss on Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011











Classified Loans 20% Loss Total Capital Cushion Impact of 20% Loss on Total Capital Cushion

(In PHP) (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,392,362,534.97 878,472,506.99 667,407,891.01 131.62%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 6,232,800,000.00 5,800,229,638.98 107.46%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 1,349,805,200.00 5,758,728,657.92 23.44%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 4,747,773,200.00 20,301,508,621.47 23.39%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,697,797,647.30 539,559,529.46 2,908,588,837.93 18.55%
Philippine National Bank 31,657,551,310.54 6,331,510,262.11 41,647,300,624.97 15.20%
Korea Exchange Bank 337,178,641.21 67,435,728.24 578,363,678.20 11.66%
Citibank N.A. 6,014,862,000.00 1,202,972,400.00 13,034,219,335.58 9.23%
Asia United Bank Corporation 4,407,070,966.35 881,414,193.27 9,561,736,538.00 9.22%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 1,632,039,363.32 18,859,833,076.12 8.65%
Land Bank of the Philippines 20,724,547,682.94 4,144,909,536.59 50,944,842,479.97 8.14%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 2,117,576,600.00 26,070,438,913.08 8.12%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,471,433,916.26 3,694,286,783.25 45,506,545,040.66 8.12%
Deutsche Bank AG 535,739,862.42 107,147,972.48 1,452,441,813.31 7.38%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 12,821,363,313.72 2,564,272,662.74 37,298,479,029.45 6.88%
Mega International Commercial Bank Company Limited 261,635,432.32 52,327,086.46 790,652,611.40 6.62%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 738,610,400.00 11,662,142,632.92 6.33%
China Banking Corporation 11,948,118,163.29 2,389,623,632.66 41,406,720,599.32 5.77%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,917,010,317.25 4,383,402,063.45 78,556,544,290.98 5.58%
Banco De Oro Unibank 29,347,875,358.34 5,869,575,071.67 108,776,275,232.51 5.40%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,471,236,517.10 294,247,303.42 5,512,890,428.32 5.34%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,056,169,695.18 1,811,233,939.04 35,788,905,692.76 5.06%
Philippine Trust Company 3,631,933,925.26 726,386,785.05 14,631,348,671.35 4.96%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 24,291,710,617.11 4,858,342,123.42 101,261,532,842.48 4.80%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,864,929.14 176,772,985.83 5,560,159,799.26 3.18%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 72,205,000.00 14,441,000.00 532,866,747.85 2.71%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 114,316,600.00 5,226,473,730.40 2.19%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd 36,128,448.62 7,225,689.72 343,328,437.00 2.10%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 446,928,750.00 89,385,750.00 5,491,404,385.19 1.63%
Philippine Bank of Communications 350,916,466.48 70,183,293.30 5,915,638,902.18 1.19%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 107,892,867.01 21,578,573.40 2,540,823,202.04 0.85%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 139,905,087.50 27,981,017.50 6,036,104,571.35 0.46%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 1,331,023.03 602,446,709.20 0.22%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. - Manila Branch 17,594,258.54 3,518,851.71 1,613,521,298.76 0.22%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 25,187.76 1,075,343,701.11 0.00%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 0.00 4,534,582,971.11 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase National Bank Association 0.00 0.00 1,421,836,000.00 0.00%
Grand Total 290,712,421,579.44 58,142,484,315.89 719,672,207,634.14 8.08%


Source: www.bsp.gov.ph



Philippine Commercial Banking System
Impact of 30% Loss on Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011











Classified Loans 30% Loss Total Capital Cushion Impact of 30% Loss on Total Capital Cushion

(In PHP) (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,392,362,534.97 1,317,708,760.49 667,407,891.01 197.44%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 9,349,200,000.00 5,800,229,638.98 161.19%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 2,024,707,800.00 5,758,728,657.92 35.16%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 7,121,659,800.00 20,301,508,621.47 35.08%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,697,797,647.30 809,339,294.19 2,908,588,837.93 27.83%
Philippine National Bank 31,657,551,310.54 9,497,265,393.16 41,647,300,624.97 22.80%
Korea Exchange Bank 337,178,641.21 101,153,592.36 578,363,678.20 17.49%
Citibank N.A. 6,014,862,000.00 1,804,458,600.00 13,034,219,335.58 13.84%
Asia United Bank Corporation 4,407,070,966.35 1,322,121,289.91 9,561,736,538.00 13.83%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 2,448,059,044.99 18,859,833,076.12 12.98%
Land Bank of the Philippines 20,724,547,682.94 6,217,364,304.88 50,944,842,479.97 12.20%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 3,176,364,900.00 26,070,438,913.08 12.18%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,471,433,916.26 5,541,430,174.88 45,506,545,040.66 12.18%
Deutsche Bank AG 535,739,862.42 160,721,958.73 1,452,441,813.31 11.07%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 12,821,363,313.72 3,846,408,994.12 37,298,479,029.45 10.31%
Mega International Commercial Bank Company Limited 261,635,432.32 78,490,629.70 790,652,611.40 9.93%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 1,107,915,600.00 11,662,142,632.92 9.50%
China Banking Corporation 11,948,118,163.29 3,584,435,448.99 41,406,720,599.32 8.66%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,917,010,317.25 6,575,103,095.18 78,556,544,290.98 8.37%
Banco De Oro Unibank 29,347,875,358.34 8,804,362,607.50 108,776,275,232.51 8.09%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,471,236,517.10 441,370,955.13 5,512,890,428.32 8.01%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,056,169,695.18 2,716,850,908.55 35,788,905,692.76 7.59%
Philippine Trust Company 3,631,933,925.26 1,089,580,177.58 14,631,348,671.35 7.45%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 24,291,710,617.11 7,287,513,185.13 101,261,532,842.48 7.20%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,864,929.14 265,159,478.74 5,560,159,799.26 4.77%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 72,205,000.00 21,661,500.00 532,866,747.85 4.07%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 171,474,900.00 5,226,473,730.40 3.28%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd 36,128,448.62 10,838,534.59 343,328,437.00 3.16%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 446,928,750.00 134,078,625.00 5,491,404,385.19 2.44%
Philippine Bank of Communications 350,916,466.48 105,274,939.94 5,915,638,902.18 1.78%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 107,892,867.01 32,367,860.10 2,540,823,202.04 1.27%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 139,905,087.50 41,971,526.25 6,036,104,571.35 0.70%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 1,996,534.55 602,446,709.20 0.33%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. - Manila Branch 17,594,258.54 5,278,277.56 1,613,521,298.76 0.33%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 37,781.64 1,075,343,701.11 0.00%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 0.00 4,534,582,971.11 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase National Bank Association 0.00 0.00 1,421,836,000.00 0.00%
Grand Total 290,712,421,579.44 87,213,726,473.83 719,672,207,634.14 12.12%

Source: www.bsp.gov.ph




Philippine Commercial Banking System
Impact of 40% Loss on Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011











Classified Loans 40% Loss Total Capital Cushion Impact of 40% Loss on Total Capital Cushion

(In PHP) (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,392,362,534.97 1,756,945,013.99 667,407,891.01 263.25%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 12,465,600,000.00 5,800,229,638.98 214.92%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 2,699,610,400.00 5,758,728,657.92 46.88%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 9,495,546,400.00 20,301,508,621.47 46.77%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,697,797,647.30 1,079,119,058.92 2,908,588,837.93 37.10%
Philippine National Bank 31,657,551,310.54 12,663,020,524.22 41,647,300,624.97 30.41%
Korea Exchange Bank 337,178,641.21 134,871,456.48 578,363,678.20 23.32%
Citibank N.A. 6,014,862,000.00 2,405,944,800.00 13,034,219,335.58 18.46%
Asia United Bank Corporation 4,407,070,966.35 1,762,828,386.54 9,561,736,538.00 18.44%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 3,264,078,726.65 18,859,833,076.12 17.31%
Land Bank of the Philippines 20,724,547,682.94 8,289,819,073.18 50,944,842,479.97 16.27%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 4,235,153,200.00 26,070,438,913.08 16.25%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,471,433,916.26 7,388,573,566.50 45,506,545,040.66 16.24%
Deutsche Bank AG 535,739,862.42 214,295,944.97 1,452,441,813.31 14.75%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 12,821,363,313.72 5,128,545,325.49 37,298,479,029.45 13.75%
Mega International Commercial Bank Company Limited 261,635,432.32 104,654,172.93 790,652,611.40 13.24%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 1,477,220,800.00 11,662,142,632.92 12.67%
China Banking Corporation 11,948,118,163.29 4,779,247,265.32 41,406,720,599.32 11.54%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,917,010,317.25 8,766,804,126.90 78,556,544,290.98 11.16%
Banco De Oro Unibank 29,347,875,358.34 11,739,150,143.34 108,776,275,232.51 10.79%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,471,236,517.10 588,494,606.84 5,512,890,428.32 10.67%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,056,169,695.18 3,622,467,878.07 35,788,905,692.76 10.12%
Philippine Trust Company 3,631,933,925.26 1,452,773,570.10 14,631,348,671.35 9.93%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 24,291,710,617.11 9,716,684,246.84 101,261,532,842.48 9.60%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,864,929.14 353,545,971.66 5,560,159,799.26 6.36%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 72,205,000.00 28,882,000.00 532,866,747.85 5.42%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 228,633,200.00 5,226,473,730.40 4.37%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd 36,128,448.62 14,451,379.45 343,328,437.00 4.21%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 446,928,750.00 178,771,500.00 5,491,404,385.19 3.26%
Philippine Bank of Communications 350,916,466.48 140,366,586.59 5,915,638,902.18 2.37%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 107,892,867.01 43,157,146.80 2,540,823,202.04 1.70%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 139,905,087.50 55,962,035.00 6,036,104,571.35 0.93%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 2,662,046.07 602,446,709.20 0.44%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. - Manila Branch 17,594,258.54 7,037,703.42 1,613,521,298.76 0.44%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 50,375.52 1,075,343,701.11 0.00%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 0.00 4,534,582,971.11 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase National Bank Association 0.00 0.00 1,421,836,000.00 0.00%
Grand Total 290,712,421,579.44 116,284,968,631.78 719,672,207,634.14 16.16%


Source: www.bsp.gov.ph




Philippine Commercial Banking System
Impact of 50% Loss on Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011











Classified Loans 50% Loss Total Capital Cushion Impact of 50% Loss on Total Capital Cushion

(In PHP) (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,392,362,534.97 2,196,181,267.49 667,407,891.01 329.06%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 15,582,000,000.00 5,800,229,638.98 268.64%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 3,374,513,000.00 5,758,728,657.92 58.60%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 11,869,433,000.00 20,301,508,621.47 58.47%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,697,797,647.30 1,348,898,823.65 2,908,588,837.93 46.38%
Philippine National Bank 31,657,551,310.54 15,828,775,655.27 41,647,300,624.97 38.01%
Korea Exchange Bank 337,178,641.21 168,589,320.61 578,363,678.20 29.15%
Citibank N.A. 6,014,862,000.00 3,007,431,000.00 13,034,219,335.58 23.07%
Asia United Bank Corporation 4,407,070,966.35 2,203,535,483.18 9,561,736,538.00 23.05%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 4,080,098,408.31 18,859,833,076.12 21.63%
Land Bank of the Philippines 20,724,547,682.94 10,362,273,841.47 50,944,842,479.97 20.34%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 5,293,941,500.00 26,070,438,913.08 20.31%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,471,433,916.26 9,235,716,958.13 45,506,545,040.66 20.30%
Deutsche Bank AG 535,739,862.42 267,869,931.21 1,452,441,813.31 18.44%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 12,821,363,313.72 6,410,681,656.86 37,298,479,029.45 17.19%
Mega International Commercial Bank Company Limited 261,635,432.32 130,817,716.16 790,652,611.40 16.55%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 1,846,526,000.00 11,662,142,632.92 15.83%
China Banking Corporation 11,948,118,163.29 5,974,059,081.65 41,406,720,599.32 14.43%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,917,010,317.25 10,958,505,158.63 78,556,544,290.98 13.95%
Banco De Oro Unibank 29,347,875,358.34 14,673,937,679.17 108,776,275,232.51 13.49%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,471,236,517.10 735,618,258.55 5,512,890,428.32 13.34%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,056,169,695.18 4,528,084,847.59 35,788,905,692.76 12.65%
Philippine Trust Company 3,631,933,925.26 1,815,966,962.63 14,631,348,671.35 12.41%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 24,291,710,617.11 12,145,855,308.56 101,261,532,842.48 11.99%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,864,929.14 441,932,464.57 5,560,159,799.26 7.95%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 72,205,000.00 36,102,500.00 532,866,747.85 6.78%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 285,791,500.00 5,226,473,730.40 5.47%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd 36,128,448.62 18,064,224.31 343,328,437.00 5.26%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 446,928,750.00 223,464,375.00 5,491,404,385.19 4.07%
Philippine Bank of Communications 350,916,466.48 175,458,233.24 5,915,638,902.18 2.97%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 107,892,867.01 53,946,433.51 2,540,823,202.04 2.12%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 139,905,087.50 69,952,543.75 6,036,104,571.35 1.16%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 3,327,557.59 602,446,709.20 0.55%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. - Manila Branch 17,594,258.54 8,797,129.27 1,613,521,298.76 0.55%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 62,969.40 1,075,343,701.11 0.01%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 0.00 4,534,582,971.11 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase National Bank Association 0.00 0.00 1,421,836,000.00 0.00%
Grand Total 290,712,421,579.44 145,356,210,789.72 719,672,207,634.14 20.20%

Source: www.bsp.gov.ph

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