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Thursday, July 26, 2012

Philippine Commercial Banks Show Further Improvement in the 1st Qtr. of 2012

Editor's Note: The Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation (PDIC) advised consumers to wisely choose the banks where they will deposit their money. The trouble is, most depositors don't and can't read financial statements before they open a bank account. The regulators, whose job is to safeguard the public's money, have not done a good job recently.  In the past ten years, two commercial banks, twenty-one thrift banks, and a staggering 187 rural banks have collapsed, often quite suddenly and without warning:  http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/video/93600/saksi-pagsasara-ng-banco-filipino-at-lbc-devt-bank-ikinadismaya.  Regulators do have a problem bank list that they do not divulge to the public, for fear of sparking another bank run. So who can the public turn to, to advise them where to put their money? No one, except the banks themselves who will always promote their self-interests. This analysis is an attempt to fill in that knowledge gap, by screening out the weaker banks that seem ready to implode at any given moment.

Editor's Note: The ratio of Distressed Assets to Total Capital Cushion is a variant of the famous Texas Ratio, which was widely used by US financial regulators to predict bank failure during the US Savings and Loan Crisis in the 1980s and early 1990s. The basic premise is that a bank with Distressed Assets greater than its Capital Cushion is in danger of insolvency, because a significant drop in the value of  the Distressed Assets will eat into a significant amount of the bank's capital.  For a more detailed discussion of this ratio, please visit a previous blog post: The Texas Ratio of Select Philippine Banks  

Based on the individual Published Statements of Condition for the Philippine Commercial Banking Industry (from www.bsp.gov.ph), Total Distressed Assets of Philippine Commercial Banks increased by PhP 5.1 billion or 0.94% from December 31, 2011 to March 31, 2012.  This increase was offset by a 6.66% increase in their Total Capital Cushion during the same period.  As a result, the Ratio of Total Distressed Assets to Total Capital Cushion of Philippine Commercial Banks decreased by 4.24%, from 79.09% as of December 31, 2011 to 74.85% as of March 31, 2012.  The results are skewed slightly lower by the absence of Export and Industry Bank, which, as of September 30, 2011, was ranked the most insolvent bank.  See previous blog posts: "Export and Industry Bank Becomes Even More Insolvent! - September 30, 2011" and "Time is Running Out for Export and Industry Bank".  Export and Industry Bank did not have a Published Statement of Condition on www.bsp.gov.ph as of the date of this blog post.

Those banks that posted significant improvements in this ratio include:
  1. United Coconut Planters Bank (35.83% decrease)
  2. HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation (22.75% decrease)
  3. Security Bank Corporation (19.80% decrease)
  4. Bank of the Philippine Islands (19.42% decrease)
  5. Asia United Bank (19.03% decrease)
  6. Maybank Philippines (18.76% decrease)
  7. East West Banking Corporation (17.47% decrease)
The banks that exhibited significant deterioration in this ratio include:
  1. Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK (510.55% increase)
  2. BDO Private Bank (33.13% increase)


Distressed Banks


None of the banks with significant increases have been classified as distressed based on their ratio of Total Distressed Assets to Total Capital Cushion as of the 1st Qtr. of  2012.

United Coconut Planters Bank continues to rank as the most distressed commercial bank in the country.  Its Total Distressed Assets are more than six times its Total Capital Cushion.  It must be noted that this ratio is down significantly from year-end 2011, when its Total Distressed Assets were ten times its Total Capital Cushion. Only one bank ranked as distressed in the 4th Qtr. of 2011 showed a deterioration in their distressed ratios as of March 31, 2012.  This bank, namely Philippine Bank of Communications, showed a 10.87% increase in its distressed ratio.



All the banks that were flagged as borderline insolvent (highlighted in yellow) as of December 31, 2011 remain borderline insolvent as of March 31, 2012.  However, as a group the distressed banks showed some improvement in their Total Distressed Assets/Total Capital Cushion Ratios.  This ratio now stands at 209.98% as of March 31, 2012, down from 218.34% as of December 31, 2011.


Philippine Commercial Banking System
Total Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011 to March 31, 2012
In PhP










Bank December 31, 2011 March 31, 2012 Variance % Variance
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 11.35% 69.30% 57.95% 510.55%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 2.49% 3.32% 0.83% 33.13%
Philippine Bank of Communications 160.10% 177.50% 17.40% 10.87%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 64.70% 69.50% 4.80% 7.42%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 62.99% 66.05% 3.05% 4.85%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 15.47% 15.47% 0.00% 0.00%
Philippine National Bank 147.76% 147.39% -0.37% -0.25%
Bank of Commerce 162.20% 161.68% -0.52% -0.32%
Union Bank of the Philippines 85.31% 84.91% -0.41% -0.47%
Banco De Oro Unibank 59.90% 58.25% -1.65% -2.76%
Development Bank of the Philippines 49.44% 47.23% -2.21% -4.47%
Land Bank of the Philippines 65.30% 61.63% -3.67% -5.61%
Philippine Trust Company 55.45% 51.82% -3.63% -6.55%
China Banking Corporation 57.42% 53.10% -4.32% -7.52%
Philippine Veterans Bank 195.56% 180.74% -14.82% -7.58%
Allied Banking Corporation 71.45% 66.02% -5.43% -7.60%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 22.46% 20.50% -1.96% -8.73%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 18.43% 16.53% -1.90% -10.30%
East West Banking Corporation 68.36% 56.41% -11.94% -17.47%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 51.65% 41.96% -9.69% -18.76%
Asia United Bank Corporation 62.14% 50.32% -11.82% -19.03%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 63.71% 51.34% -12.37% -19.42%
Security Bank Corporation 47.14% 37.80% -9.34% -19.80%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 71.76% 55.44% -16.33% -22.75%
United Coconut Planters Bank 1003.58% 643.97% -359.61% -35.83%
Group Total 79.09% 74.85% -4.24% -5.36%










Source: www.bsp.gov.ph







Philippine Commercial Banking System
Total Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011 to March 31, 2012
In PhP


































December 31, 2011


March 31, 2012


Variance


% Variance
Bank Total Distressed Assets (In PhP) Total Capital Cushion (In PhP) Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion (In %)
Total Distressed Assets (In PhP) Total Capital Cushion (In PhP) Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion (In %)
Total Distressed Assets (In PhP) Total Capital Cushion (In PhP) Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion (In %)
Total Distressed Assets (In %) Total Capital Cushion (In %) Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion (In %)
United Coconut Planters Bank 58,210,111,052.92 5,800,229,638.98 1003.58%
58,346,163,511.76 9,060,379,410.73 643.97%
136,052,458.84 3,260,149,771.75 -359.61%
0.23% 56.21% -35.83%
Philippine Veterans Bank 11,261,881,811.07 5,758,728,657.92 195.56%
11,386,593,846.84 6,300,066,206.28 180.74%
124,712,035.77 541,337,548.36 -14.82%
1.11% 9.40% -7.58%
Philippine Bank of Communications 9,471,188,959.63 5,915,638,902.18 160.10%
9,605,657,632.92 5,411,642,825.75 177.50%
134,468,673.29 -503,996,076.43 17.40%
1.42% -8.52% 10.87%
Bank of Commerce 32,929,553,535.88 20,301,508,621.47 162.20%
32,940,752,605.77 20,373,765,341.59 161.68%
11,199,069.89 72,256,720.12 -0.52%
0.03% 0.36% -0.32%
Philippine National Bank 61,539,362,228.07 41,647,300,624.97 147.76%
60,946,464,001.47 41,349,439,614.75 147.39%
-592,898,226.60 -297,861,010.22 -0.37%
-0.96% -0.72% -0.25%
Union Bank of the Philippines 38,822,563,049.10 45,506,545,040.66 85.31%
38,760,712,790.01 45,650,885,590.92 84.91%
-61,850,259.09 144,340,550.26 -0.41%
-0.16% 0.32% -0.47%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 24,131,710,175.80 37,298,479,029.45 64.70%
26,600,710,113.13 38,273,962,830.12 69.50%
2,468,999,937.33 975,483,800.67 4.80%
10.23% 2.62% 7.42%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK 623,286,587.93 5,491,404,385.19 11.35%
1,834,533,107.88 2,647,280,603.37 69.30%
1,211,246,519.95 -2,844,123,781.82 57.95%
194.33% -51.79% 510.55%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 63,787,741,208.04 101,261,532,842.48 62.99%
65,533,760,882.97 99,222,043,905.63 66.05%
1,746,019,674.93 -2,039,488,936.85 3.05%
2.74% -2.01% 4.85%
Allied Banking Corporation 13,475,330,400.74 18,859,833,076.12 71.45%
13,399,669,031.50 20,296,906,255.80 66.02%
-75,661,369.24 1,437,073,179.68 -5.43%
-0.56% 7.62% -7.60%
Land Bank of the Philippines 33,266,907,399.89 50,944,842,479.97 65.30%
33,900,145,235.73 55,001,642,722.05 61.63%
633,237,835.84 4,056,800,242.08 -3.67%
1.90% 7.96% -5.61%
Banco De Oro Unibank 65,154,415,706.61 108,776,275,232.51 59.90%
69,886,800,878.72 119,983,815,083.47 58.25%
4,732,385,172.11 11,207,539,850.96 -1.65%
7.26% 10.30% -2.76%
East West Banking Corporation 7,972,097,612.88 11,662,142,632.92 68.36%
8,685,415,309.09 15,395,752,915.64 56.41%
713,317,696.21 3,733,610,282.72 -11.94%
8.95% 32.01% -17.47%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 3,990,058,443.49 5,560,159,799.26 71.76%
3,000,103,881.92 5,411,909,952.04 55.44%
-989,954,561.57 -148,249,847.22 -16.33%
-24.81% -2.67% -22.75%
China Banking Corporation 23,774,532,770.51 41,406,720,599.32 57.42%
22,076,228,426.80 41,575,673,227.32 53.10%
-1,698,304,343.71 168,952,628.00 -4.32%
-7.14% 0.41% -7.52%
Philippine Trust Company 8,112,568,190.46 14,631,348,671.35 55.45%
8,561,718,369.96 16,523,217,254.71 51.82%
449,150,179.50 1,891,868,583.36 -3.63%
5.54% 12.93% -6.55%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 50,047,779,686.11 78,556,544,290.98 63.71%
47,321,213,011.63 92,180,981,372.08 51.34%
-2,726,566,674.48 13,624,437,081.10 -12.37%
-5.45% 17.34% -19.42%
Asia United Bank Corporation 5,941,452,139.74 9,561,736,538.00 62.14%
5,288,994,151.41 10,511,663,015.14 50.32%
-652,457,988.33 949,926,477.14 -11.82%
-10.98% 9.93% -19.03%
Development Bank of the Philippines 17,694,996,122.18 35,788,905,692.76 49.44%
17,008,446,193.85 36,008,144,271.63 47.23%
-686,549,928.33 219,238,578.87 -2.21%
-3.88% 0.61% -4.47%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 2,847,143,306.74 5,512,890,428.32 51.65%
3,037,504,931.61 7,239,824,313.81 41.96%
190,361,624.87 1,726,933,885.49 -9.69%
6.69% 31.33% -18.76%
Security Bank Corporation 12,289,009,897.96 26,070,438,913.08 47.14%
12,390,822,425.97 32,777,702,285.12 37.80%
101,812,528.01 6,707,263,372.04 -9.34%
0.83% 25.73% -19.80%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 1,173,989,648.85 5,226,473,730.40 22.46%
1,144,879,604.03 5,584,142,208.47 20.50%
-29,110,044.82 357,668,478.07 -1.96%
-2.48% 6.84% -8.73%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 1,112,691,065.96 6,036,104,571.35 18.43%
1,049,304,240.66 6,346,182,232.09 16.53%
-63,386,825.30 310,077,660.74 -1.90%
-5.70% 5.14% -10.30%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines 82,421,466.30 532,866,747.85 15.47%
82,421,466.30 532,866,747.85 15.47%
0.00 0.00 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 113,090,563.50 4,534,582,971.11 2.49%
168,810,398.09 5,084,420,800.74 3.32%
55,719,834.59 549,837,829.63 0.83%
49.27% 12.13% 33.13%
Group Total 547,825,883,030.36 692,643,234,118.60 79.09%
552,957,826,050.02 738,744,310,987.10 74.85%
5,131,943,019.66 46,101,076,868.50 -4.24%
0.94% 6.66% -5.36%
















































Source: www.bsp.gov.ph



















Disclaimer:

This list only serves as a screening guide.  It is not a definitive guide and must be taken in the context of other factors.  The figures are based on the individual banks' statement of condition as of December 31, 2011 and March 31, 2012 as published in the BSP website (www.bsp.gov.ph). For this analysis, no attempt was made to go through the audited financial statements of each bank. Readers are suggested to make their own investigations and verify the figures presented. Both BSP and PDIC have their own problem bank screening systems that are much more sophisticated in scope and design, given that they have more access to information over the banks they regulate.

Monday, July 23, 2012

How Leveraged is the Philippine Economy Relative to Other Global Economies?

Crossposted from my other blog: "The System is Broken"


Today is a doozy.  Spain is imploding and has followed Italy in imposing a short selling ban.  Six countries out of seventeen countries in the Eurozone are already in recession.  Greece and Ireland are in a depression. The US is at or is nearing a recession.  China, the world's second largest economy, is slowing.  So is India.

It's been obvious for some time that large swaths of Europe are in a sovereign debt crisis.  First, Iceland, then Ireland, then Greece and Portugal, and now Spain.  Italy soon to follow.  Quite a bit of blame for the crisis has been placed on the creation of the Euro currency, which allowed the monetary but not fiscal and economic union of the Eurozone countries, resulting in economic imbalances between those countries and the rest of the world.  Quite a bit of blame has also been placed on the financial leverage of those economies.  Greece, which recently had the largest debt restructuring of a sovereign nation and whose debtholders experienced a 75% haircut, will, if all goes well, still have a debt to GDP ratio of 120% by 2020!

So all this brings to mind the question: How leveraged is the Philippine economy relative to other global economies?  Are we the next Greece or Spain.  Based on the latest available data, we are at or below the global average.

With a Public Debt to GDP Ratio of 48.89% as of 2009, we are slightly above the global average of 47.90%.


Global Economies
Public Debt
As % of GDP
Year 2009





Public Debt
Country (% of GDP)
Liberia 224.13
Japan 217.60
Guinea-Bissau 163.31
Lebanon 147.97
Congo, Dem. Rep. of 138.26
Jamaica 137.44
Eritrea 134.97
Seychelles 127.34
Grenada 122.30
Antigua and Barbuda 118.26
Italy 115.77
Greece 115.16
Singapore 109.98
Barbados 105.36
Iceland 99.87
Belgium 96.80
Dominica 85.29
Sri Lanka 85.27
United States 84.26
Belize 81.42
Nicaragua 81.28
Sudan 80.60
Hungary 78.26
France 78.07
India 77.69
Israel 77.57
Portugal 76.30
Egypt 76.18
Bhutan 74.74
Germany 73.51
Cape Verde 70.76
Brazil 68.90
Malta 68.66
United Kingdom 68.49
Austria 67.11
Ghana 66.48
Sao Tome and Principe 65.78
Ireland 65.53
Cote d'Ivoire 65.01
Netherlands 61.77
Lao People's Democratic Republic 61.64
Jordan 61.39
Uruguay 60.65
Guyana 60.53
Albania 59.51
Argentina 59.02
Gambia, The 58.29
Congo, Republic of 57.59
Pakistan 57.29
Comoros 56.93
Cyprus 56.22
Malaysia 55.38
Togo 55.22
Cameroon 54.06
Fiji 53.50
Spain 53.10
Burundi 52.28
Yemen, Republic of 51.04
Poland 50.92
Mauritius 49.28
Kenya 49.17
Vietnam 49.04
Philippines 48.89
El Salvador 48.55
Morocco 47.71
Malawi 45.51
Turkey 45.50
Lesotho 45.35
Mexico 44.94
Thailand 44.22
Finland 43.90
Bangladesh 43.48
Tunisia 42.78
Tanzania 42.76
Sweden 41.63
Denmark 41.45
Bahamas, The 41.26
Armenia 40.63
Bolivia 40.54
Panama 39.87
Djibouti 39.53
Nepal 39.39
Switzerland 39.02
Angola 38.28
Tonga 38.25
Georgia 37.38
Qatar 36.70
Venezuela 36.38
Trinidad and Tobago 35.45
Croatia 35.41
Bosnia and Herzegovina 35.37
Czech Republic 35.34
Colombia 35.19
Ukraine 34.64
Madagascar 33.74
Latvia 32.83
Korea, Republic of 32.56
Senegal 31.96
Chad 31.41
South Africa 30.84
Romania 29.91
Lithuania 29.46
Slovenia 29.38
Mozambique 29.31
Cambodia 28.75
Indonesia 28.60
Dominican Republic 28.44
Solomon Islands 28.28
Costa Rica 28.02
Burkina Faso 27.86
Zambia 27.67
Moldova 27.56
Benin 27.52
Peru 27.38
Syrian Arab Republic 27.32
United Arab Emirates 27.12
Central African Republic 26.90
Bahrain 26.58
New Zealand 26.16
Gabon 26.07
Belarus 25.15
Haiti 24.77
Mali 23.93
Honduras 23.68
Guatemala 22.96
Uganda 22.22
Iran, Islamic Republic of 21.58
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of 20.82
Suriname 20.35
China, People's Republic of 18.59
Paraguay 18.04
Australia 17.63
Luxembourg 16.46
Bulgaria 16.06
Saudi Arabia 15.97
Niger 15.78
Namibia 15.74
Nigeria 15.49
Botswana 14.96
Ecuador 14.67
Swaziland 14.66
Kuwait 14.33
Azerbaijan 12.11
Kazakhstan 10.93
Russian Federation 10.88
Hong Kong SAR 10.22
Oman 7.75
Estonia 7.15
Chile 6.21
Maldives 0.00
Montenegro 0.00
Vanuatu 0.00
Mauritania 0.00
Serbia 0.00
Samoa 0.00
Papua New Guinea 0.00
Brunei Darussalam 0.00
Mongolia 0.00
Kosovo 0.00
Sierra Leone 0.00
Afghanistan, Islamic Rep. of 0.00
Global Average 47.90


Source: www.imf.org


With Private Debt to GDP Ratio of 48.70% as of 2009, we are way below the global average of 72.18%.



Global Economies
Private Debt
As % of GDP
Year 2009





Private Debt
Country (% of GDP)
Japan 327.80
Cyprus 302.90
United States 234.90
United Kingdom 229.20
Spain 229.10
Netherlands 224.10
Ireland 223.80
Denmark 221.90
Portugal 195.10
Switzerland 193.10
Luxembourg 189.80
South Africa 184.20
Iceland 182.80
Hong Kong SAR 167.80
Lebanon 163.10
Malta 157.40
New Zealand 154.20
China, People's Republic of 145.10
Liberia 144.30
Sweden 144.10
Australia 143.70
Italy 141.60
Austria 140.90
Fiji 139.60
Malaysia 137.40
Thailand 137.00
Barbados 136.30
Germany 133.10
France 128.80
Vietnam 123.00
Belgium 118.80
Greece 115.60
Eritrea 113.10
Korea, Republic of 109.40
Mauritius 106.80
Estonia 105.40
Jordan 104.60
Bahamas, The 102.70
Morocco 100.80
Antigua and Barbuda 98.00
Finland 98.00
United Arab Emirates 97.50
Singapore 97.20
Brazil 95.80
Latvia 94.30
Chile 93.50
Slovenia 93.40
Ukraine 88.60
Grenada 87.40
Kuwait 86.80
Maldives 86.50
Israel 85.90
Bahrain 84.60
Panama 83.80
Hungary 81.40
Cape Verde 78.10
Croatia 76.40
Qatar 76.20
Montenegro 76.20
Egypt 75.10
Belize 73.00
India 70.40
Lithuania 70.00
Bulgaria 69.60
Nepal 69.10
Tunisia 68.30
Albania 68.00
Nicaragua 66.70
Turkey 63.00
Vanuatu 61.60
Colombia 61.50
Poland 61.40
Czech Republic 60.50
Bangladesh 60.40
Jamaica 57.90
Honduras 54.70
Costa Rica 54.60
Kazakhstan 54.60
Bosnia and Herzegovina 52.90
Mauritania 52.90
Romania 52.70
Bolivia 49.50
Guyana 49.10
Dominica 48.70
Philippines 48.70
Pakistan 48.40
Serbia 48.00
Samoa 46.50
Namibia 46.00
El Salvador 45.40
Seychelles 44.30
Mexico 43.70
Syrian Arab Republic 43.60
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of 43.50
Tonga 43.20
Kenya 43.10
Moldova 41.40
Oman 41.30
Dominican Republic 40.60
Sri Lanka 39.60
Guatemala 39.20
Papua New Guinea 39.00
Iran, Islamic Republic of 37.20
Indonesia 37.00
Nigeria 36.90
Solomon Islands 35.10
Belarus 34.10
Russian Federation 33.70
Georgia 32.90
Djibouti 32.30
Trinidad and Tobago 32.30
Brunei Darussalam 32.20
Malawi 32.00
Bhutan 30.90
Paraguay 30.20
Mongolia 29.60
Angola 29.20
Uruguay 28.80
Ghana 28.70
Gambia, The 28.60
Argentina 28.00
Togo 27.30
Senegal 26.60
Suriname 26.20
Venezuela 25.90
Sao Tome and Principe 25.40
Ecuador 24.40
Haiti 23.60
Burundi 23.40
Cote d'Ivoire 23.00
Mozambique 22.60
Azerbaijan 22.50
Lao People's Democratic Republic 20.80
Comoros 20.50
Yemen, Republic of 20.30
Sudan 20.00
Armenia 20.00
Benin 19.30
Cambodia 19.10
Peru 18.90
Zambia 18.50
Tanzania 18.10
Central African Republic 15.30
Burkina Faso 14.80
Kosovo 14.10
Niger 12.50
Madagascar 11.80
Uganda 11.80
Sierra Leone 10.90
Mali 10.70
Swaziland 9.10
Cameroon 8.30
Chad 8.00
Gabon 7.60
Congo, Dem. Rep. of 7.30
Guinea-Bissau 4.90
Afghanistan, Islamic Rep. of 3.40
Saudi Arabia 0.60
Botswana -1.00
Lesotho -14.70
Congo, Republic of -15.90
Global Average 72.18




Source: www.worldbank.org, www.imf.org


In terms of our Total Debt to GDP Ratio, the Philippines has a Total Debt to GDP Ratio of 97.59% as of 2009, far below the global average of 120.07%.


Global Economies


Public Debt, Private Debt, and Total Debt


As % of GDP


Year 2009











Public Debt Private Debt Total Debt
Country (% of GDP) (% of GDP) (% of GDP)
Japan 217.60 327.80 545.40
Liberia 224.13 144.30 368.43
Cyprus 56.22 302.90 359.12
United States 84.26 234.90 319.16
Lebanon 147.97 163.10 311.07
United Kingdom 68.49 229.20 297.69
Ireland 65.53 223.80 289.33
Netherlands 61.77 224.10 285.87
Iceland 99.87 182.80 282.67
Spain 53.10 229.10 282.20
Portugal 76.30 195.10 271.40
Denmark 41.45 221.90 263.35
Italy 115.77 141.60 257.37
Eritrea 134.97 113.10 248.07
Barbados 105.36 136.30 241.66
Switzerland 39.02 193.10 232.12
Greece 115.16 115.60 230.76
Malta 68.66 157.40 226.06
Antigua and Barbuda 118.26 98.00 216.26
Belgium 96.80 118.80 215.60
South Africa 30.84 184.20 215.04
Grenada 122.30 87.40 209.70
Austria 67.11 140.90 208.01
Singapore 109.98 97.20 207.18
France 78.07 128.80 206.87
Germany 73.51 133.10 206.61
Luxembourg 16.46 189.80 206.26
Jamaica 137.44 57.90 195.34
Fiji 53.50 139.60 193.10
Malaysia 55.38 137.40 192.78
Sweden 41.63 144.10 185.73
Thailand 44.22 137.00 181.22
New Zealand 26.16 154.20 180.36
Hong Kong SAR 10.22 167.80 178.02
Vietnam 49.04 123.00 172.04
Seychelles 127.34 44.30 171.64
Guinea-Bissau 163.31 4.90 168.21
Jordan 61.39 104.60 165.99
Brazil 68.90 95.80 164.70
China, People's Republic of 18.59 145.10 163.69
Israel 77.57 85.90 163.47
Australia 17.63 143.70 161.33
Hungary 78.26 81.40 159.66
Mauritius 49.28 106.80 156.08
Belize 81.42 73.00 154.42
Egypt 76.18 75.10 151.28
Cape Verde 70.76 78.10 148.86
Morocco 47.71 100.80 148.51
India 77.69 70.40 148.09
Nicaragua 81.28 66.70 147.98
Congo, Dem. Rep. of 138.26 7.30 145.56
Bahamas, The 41.26 102.70 143.96
Korea, Republic of 32.56 109.40 141.96
Finland 43.90 98.00 141.90
Dominica 85.29 48.70 133.99
Albania 59.51 68.00 127.51
Latvia 32.83 94.30 127.13
Sri Lanka 85.27 39.60 124.87
United Arab Emirates 27.12 97.50 124.62
Panama 39.87 83.80 123.67
Ukraine 34.64 88.60 123.24
Slovenia 29.38 93.40 122.78
Qatar 36.70 76.20 112.90
Estonia 7.15 105.40 112.55
Poland 50.92 61.40 112.32
Croatia 35.41 76.40 111.81
Bahrain 26.58 84.60 111.18
Tunisia 42.78 68.30 111.08
Guyana 60.53 49.10 109.63
Turkey 45.50 63.00 108.50
Nepal 39.39 69.10 108.49
Pakistan 57.29 48.40 105.69
Bhutan 74.74 30.90 105.64
Bangladesh 43.48 60.40 103.88
Kuwait 14.33 86.80 101.13
Sudan 80.60 20.00 100.60
Chile 6.21 93.50 99.71
Lithuania 29.46 70.00 99.46
Philippines 48.89 48.70 97.59
Colombia 35.19 61.50 96.69
Czech Republic 35.34 60.50 95.84
Ghana 66.48 28.70 95.18
El Salvador 48.55 45.40 93.95
Kenya 49.17 43.10 92.27
Sao Tome and Principe 65.78 25.40 91.18
Bolivia 40.54 49.50 90.04
Uruguay 60.65 28.80 89.45
Mexico 44.94 43.70 88.64
Bosnia and Herzegovina 35.37 52.90 88.27
Cote d'Ivoire 65.01 23.00 88.01
Argentina 59.02 28.00 87.02
Gambia, The 58.29 28.60 86.89
Maldives 0.00 86.50 86.50
Bulgaria 16.06 69.60 85.66
Costa Rica 28.02 54.60 82.62
Romania 29.91 52.70 82.61
Togo 55.22 27.30 82.52
Lao People's Democratic Republic 61.64 20.80 82.44
Tonga 38.25 43.20 81.45
Honduras 23.68 54.70 78.38
Malawi 45.51 32.00 77.51
Comoros 56.93 20.50 77.43
Montenegro 0.00 76.20 76.20
Burundi 52.28 23.40 75.68
Djibouti 39.53 32.30 71.83
Yemen, Republic of 51.04 20.30 71.34
Syrian Arab Republic 27.32 43.60 70.92
Georgia 37.38 32.90 70.28
Dominican Republic 28.44 40.60 69.04
Moldova 27.56 41.40 68.96
Trinidad and Tobago 35.45 32.30 67.75
Angola 38.28 29.20 67.48
Indonesia 28.60 37.00 65.60
Kazakhstan 10.93 54.60 65.53
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of 20.82 43.50 64.32
Solomon Islands 28.28 35.10 63.38
Cameroon 54.06 8.30 62.36
Venezuela 36.38 25.90 62.28
Guatemala 22.96 39.20 62.16
Namibia 15.74 46.00 61.74
Vanuatu 0.00 61.60 61.60
Tanzania 42.76 18.10 60.86
Armenia 40.63 20.00 60.63
Belarus 25.15 34.10 59.25
Iran, Islamic Republic of 21.58 37.20 58.78
Senegal 31.96 26.60 58.56
Mauritania 0.00 52.90 52.90
Nigeria 15.49 36.90 52.39
Mozambique 29.31 22.60 51.91
Oman 7.75 41.30 49.05
Haiti 24.77 23.60 48.37
Paraguay 18.04 30.20 48.24
Serbia 0.00 48.00 48.00
Cambodia 28.75 19.10 47.85
Benin 27.52 19.30 46.82
Suriname 20.35 26.20 46.55
Samoa 0.00 46.50 46.50
Peru 27.38 18.90 46.28
Zambia 27.67 18.50 46.17
Madagascar 33.74 11.80 45.54
Russian Federation 10.88 33.70 44.58
Burkina Faso 27.86 14.80 42.66
Central African Republic 26.90 15.30 42.20
Congo, Republic of 57.59 -15.90 41.69
Chad 31.41 8.00 39.41
Ecuador 14.67 24.40 39.07
Papua New Guinea 0.00 39.00 39.00
Mali 23.93 10.70 34.63
Azerbaijan 12.11 22.50 34.61
Uganda 22.22 11.80 34.02
Gabon 26.07 7.60 33.67
Brunei Darussalam 0.00 32.20 32.20
Lesotho 45.35 -14.70 30.65
Mongolia 0.00 29.60 29.60
Niger 15.78 12.50 28.28
Swaziland 14.66 9.10 23.76
Saudi Arabia 15.97 0.60 16.57
Kosovo 0.00 14.10 14.10
Botswana 14.96 -1.00 13.96
Sierra Leone 0.00 10.90 10.90
Afghanistan, Islamic Rep. of 0.00 3.40 3.40
Global Average 47.90 72.18 120.07








Source: www.worldbank.org, www.imf.org




The Philippines is totally not out of the woods yet.  Since at least 60% of the global economy is experiencing a slowdown, there's a strong chance that the Philippine economy will experience a slowdown as well in the not too distant future. Let's not forget that the economies of Iceland, Ireland, and Spain were brought down by a banking crisis.  Iceland's banking sector was huge relative to the size of its economy and when the financial crisis of 2008 struck, it's banking system collapsed as well.  Both Ireland and Spain experienced massive real estate bubbles.  The their subsequent bursting led to an explosion of non-performing loans in the banking system.  The ratio of Philippine NPLs to GDP was only 1.61% as of 2011, well below the global average of 5.56% for the same period.  Lest we get too complacent, we have to remember that Ireland's NPL to GDP ratio was only 1.56% in 2007.  A year later, during the 2008 financial crisis, it was 5.39%.  The following year, it nearly quadrupled to 20.14% and has remained above 20% ever since.  We could suffer the same fate, if we're not too careful.


Global Economies
NPL as a % of GDP
2007 to 2010












Country name 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Iceland 0.00% 0.00% 82.63% 66.59% 56.92%
Ireland 1.56% 5.39% 20.14% 20.06% 20.76%
Cyprus 0.00% 10.08% 13.63% 17.68% 20.14%
Greece 5.12% 5.80% 8.90% 15.13% 17.08%
Latvia 0.72% 3.22% 15.47% 17.02% 14.59%
Malta 6.94% 6.91% 8.81% 11.22% 11.62%
Ukraine 1.83% 3.20% 12.14% 12.16% 11.30%
Lithuania 0.60% 2.95% 13.51% 12.73% 10.98%
United States 3.42% 6.66% 12.68% 11.41% 10.97%
Kazakhstan 0.00% 2.76% 11.58% 10.81% 10.68%
Serbia 0.00% 4.55% 7.44% 9.73% 10.23%
Croatia 3.44% 3.65% 5.96% 9.21% 10.18%
Albania 2.11% 4.36% 7.14% 9.33% 9.95%
Bulgaria 1.17% 1.61% 4.45% 8.44% 9.64%
Denmark 1.23% 2.52% 7.32% 8.83% 9.06%
Hungary 1.74% 2.43% 5.45% 7.92% 7.87%
Romania 0.91% 1.33% 4.16% 6.53% 7.37%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.86% 2.08% 3.12% 7.41% 6.75%
Pakistan 3.68% 5.59% 6.10% 6.81% 6.65%
Lebanon 18.34% 12.62% 9.79% 7.07% 6.60%
Portugal 2.32% 3.20% 5.46% 6.90% 6.53%
Netherlands 0.00% 3.33% 7.17% 5.94% 5.70%
Morocco 7.19% 5.92% 5.54% 4.66% 5.59%
Poland 2.41% 2.69% 4.91% 5.59% 5.56%
Thailand 10.40% 7.44% 7.26% 5.28% 5.28%
Ghana 1.47% 2.15% 4.65% 5.00% 4.76%
Estonia 0.45% 1.82% 5.48% 5.34% 4.46%
South Africa 2.73% 6.78% 10.87% 10.58% 4.42%
Macedonia, FYR 2.51% 2.77% 3.87% 4.37% 4.25%
Moldova 1.49% 2.07% 6.79% 4.95% 4.23%
Bhutan 0.00% 0.00% 2.10% 2.11% 3.89%
Malaysia 7.37% 5.52% 4.95% 4.49% 3.83%
Czech Republic 1.39% 1.78% 3.15% 3.90% 3.81%
Austria 2.79% 2.49% 3.24% 3.85% 3.65%
Georgia 0.81% 4.19% 5.86% 4.15% 3.53%
Russian Federation 0.61% 0.91% 3.20% 3.15% 3.26%
Australia 0.82% 1.86% 2.87% 3.25% 3.21%
Brazil 2.77% 3.00% 4.02% 2.95% 3.15%
Mauritius 2.48% 2.16% 3.52% 3.11% 3.10%
Kenya 3.94% 3.59% 3.40% 3.21% 2.81%
Seychelles 1.81% 1.34% 1.68% 2.85% 2.60%
Sierra Leone 0.20% 1.32% 1.16% 2.87% 2.58%
Chile 0.68% 0.93% 2.71% 2.40% 2.40%
Turkey 1.77% 2.00% 3.53% 2.64% 2.15%
Colombia 1.68% 2.16% 2.46% 1.90% 1.91%
El Salvador 0.98% 1.30% 1.68% 1.74% 1.74%
Philippines* 2.80% 2.13% 2.00% 1.87% 1.61%
China 7.92% 2.90% 2.32% 1.61% 1.60%
Hong Kong SAR, China 1.00% 1.50% 2.68% 1.59% 1.48%
Armenia 0.29% 0.75% 0.96% 0.77% 1.43%
Dominican Republic 1.57% 1.33% 1.62% 1.15% 1.21%
Costa Rica 0.58% 0.81% 1.09% 0.96% 1.17%
Indonesia 1.66% 1.18% 1.22% 0.95% 1.12%
Belarus 0.51% 0.56% 1.43% 1.59% 1.07%
Panama 1.23% 1.46% 1.17% 0.96% 1.01%
Namibia 1.36% 1.36% 1.24% 1.06% 0.98%
Bolivia 3.00% 2.08% 1.73% 1.09% 0.95%
Ecuador 0.84% 0.76% 1.00% 0.92% 0.95%
Mexico 0.89% 1.12% 1.22% 0.90% 0.91%
Oman 1.05% 0.61% 1.45% 1.24% 0.87%
Guatemala 0.61% 0.84% 1.06% 0.81% 0.78%
Venezuela, RB 0.24% 0.38% 0.78% 0.77% 0.73%
Paraguay 0.25% 0.28% 0.48% 0.42% 0.62%
Mozambique 0.26% 0.26% 0.41% 0.49% 0.57%
Luxembourg 0.73% 1.10% 1.33% 0.37% 0.51%
Finland 0.26% 0.35% 0.59% 0.60% 0.50%
Argentina 0.77% 0.66% 0.84% 0.53% 0.47%
Peru 0.43% 0.42% 0.51% 0.47% 0.47%
Uganda 0.23% 0.27% 0.50% 0.35% 0.47%
Lesotho -0.55% -0.74% -0.54% -0.23% 0.02%
Montenegro 2.50% 6.34% 10.29% 14.26% NA
Italy 5.90% 6.47% 9.91% 12.08% NA
Spain 1.78% 6.01% 9.39% 10.76% NA
Tunisia 11.33% 10.17% 9.02% 8.93% NA
United Kingdom 1.69% 3.42% 8.02% 8.90% NA
Jordan 4.69% 4.66% 7.01% 7.89% NA
Egypt, Arab Rep. 16.23% 11.50% 10.06% 7.63% NA
Nigeria 1.92% 0.08% 10.74% 6.14% NA
Kuwait 2.61% 4.44% 9.98% 5.87% NA
Japan 4.17% 5.12% 6.23% 5.87% NA
Senegal 4.54% 4.26% 4.97% 5.86% NA
France 3.29% 3.48% 4.64% 5.58% NA
United Arab Emirates 1.74% 1.68% 4.19% 5.17% NA
Slovenia 1.47% 1.57% 2.15% 3.51% NA
Belgium 1.34% 1.92% 3.68% 3.28% NA
Korea, Rep. 0.69% 1.20% 1.31% 1.96% NA
India 1.52% 1.56% 1.62% 1.75% NA
Singapore 1.04% 1.40% 2.33% 1.51% NA
Swaziland 0.49% 0.14% 0.74% 1.38% NA
Gabon 0.22% 0.52% 0.55% 1.00% NA
Uruguay 0.27% 0.35% 0.35% 0.32% NA
Germany 3.37% 3.67% 4.39% NA NA
Sweden 0.78% 1.35% 2.88% NA NA
Israel 1.31% 1.35% 1.20% NA NA
Switzerland 0.55% 0.91% 0.77% NA NA
Kosovo 0.00% 0.39% 0.62% NA NA
Global Average 2.28% 2.78% 5.48% 5.76% 5.56%












* Estimated 2011
Source: www.worldbank.org, www.bsp.gov.ph