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Sunday, September 17, 2017

A Simple Stress Test of Philippine Banks as of March 31, 2017

Editor's Note: This is an updated version of an earlier blog post A Simple Stress Test of Philippine Banks as of December 31, 2016

Editor's Note: For the purposes of this article, Philippine Banks or the Philippine Banking System refers to the Philippine Commercial and Universal Banking System and the Philippine Thrift Banking System.  We are ignoring the Philippine Rural and Cooperative Banking System whose asset base is tiny in comparison to the whole banking system (Php 217.88 billion or 1.58% of the Php 13,777.29 billion in assets held in the Philippine Banking System as of March 31, 2017).


In an April 9, 2012 article entitled "Stress Test Proves Strength of PH Banks", "Philippine banks are seen to survive a disaster in which the various lenders are forced to write off loans as large as PhP 36 billion without asking shareholders, the central bank, or the national government for bailout money."  This assertion stems from a recent stress test conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on all 55 regular and commercial and expanded license banks.

For Philippine Banks, these NPLs currently comprise PhP 139.25 billion or 8.97% of the PhP 1,552.38 billion in Stockholders Equity (SE) as of March 31, 2017.  So, writing off 50% of the Philippine Banks NPLs would reduce their aggregate stockholder's equity by a little less than 5%.

Naturally, some banks would be more affected than others. For more information regarding this, please read The Top Distressed Philippine Banks as of March 31, 2017).

The stockholder's equity of seven banks would be severely affected.  These banks are:


  1. Philippine Postal Savings Bank Inc (132.39% decline in SE)
  2. World Partners Bank (130.76% decline in SE)
  3. Luzon Development Bank (89.87% decline in SE)
  4. Enterprise Bank Inc (45.46% decline in SE)
  5. Equicom Savings Bank (43.55% decline in SE)
  6. Legazpi Savings Bank Inc (43.04% decline in SE)
  7. Maritime Savings Bank Corporation (33.20% decline in SE)
Philippine Banking System
NPL as % of SE
March 31, 2017









NPL SE NPL/SE
Bank (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
PHIL POSTAL SAVINGS BANK INC 2,526,517,914.79 954,200,832.74 264.78%
WORLD PARTNERS BANK (A THRIFT BANK) 112,362,449.20 42,964,068.18 261.53%
LUZON DEVELOPMENT BANK 620,878,345.67 345,425,448.65 179.74%
ENTERPRISE BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 252,043,502.46 277,185,285.45 90.93%
EQUICOM SAVINGS BANK INC 646,533,823.35 742,357,199.11 87.09%
LEGAZPI SAVINGS BANK INC 445,995,447.33 518,168,423.03 86.07%
MARITIME SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 24,499,153.86 36,899,584.35 66.39%
MALAYAN BANK SAVINGS AND MORT BANK INC 565,547,649.98 1,021,229,750.21 55.38%
PHILIPPINE RESOURCES SAVINGS BANKING CORPORATION (PR SAVINGS BANK) 980,710,424.09 1,922,167,223.77 51.02%
CHINA BANK SAVINGS INC 4,410,355,252.20 9,163,202,511.71 48.13%
PHILIPPINE VETERANS BANK 1,875,995,021.68 4,046,296,276.43 46.36%
UCPB SAVINGS BANK 1,254,581,397.45 2,819,058,997.52 44.50%
THE PALAWAN BANK (PALAWAN DB) INC 16,672,400.66 39,837,931.33 41.85%
RCBC SAVINGS BANK INC 4,431,477,476.10 10,695,425,583.02 41.43%
PAMPANGA DEVELOPMENT BANK 55,028,244.04 135,300,585.57 40.67%
METRO CEBU PUBLIC SAVINGS BANK 24,372,080.98 61,356,495.52 39.72%
STERLING BANK OF ASIA INC (A SAVINGS BANK) 942,498,137.44 2,562,739,122.29 36.78%
UNITED COCONUT PLANTERS BANK 6,385,518,030.66 17,451,124,244.88 36.59%
PENBANK INC (A PDB) (FORMERLY: PENINSULA RB INC) 168,397,257.81 462,780,457.04 36.39%
BATAAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 27,407,967.11 77,568,284.11 35.33%
BANK OF MAKATI (A SAVINGS BANK) INC 2,272,945,790.64 6,556,445,019.72 34.67%
CITYSTATE SAVINGS BANK INC 221,868,254.68 692,872,698.83 32.02%
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK 2,124,976,632.70 6,667,508,845.95 31.87%
NORTHPOINT DEV'T BANK INC 99,959,947.40 344,690,779.53 29.00%
BPI FAMILY SAVINGS BANK INC 7,729,608,998.38 26,770,809,993.57 28.87%
1ST VALLEY BANK INC A DEVELOPMENT BANK 428,729,538.30 1,488,039,794.90 28.81%
PHIL SAVINGS BANK 4,666,176,343.64 19,291,936,376.39 24.19%
BPI DIRECT BANKO INC A SAVINGS BANK 429,252,061.73 1,808,195,890.33 23.74%
PRODUCERS SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 386,138,239.27 1,644,599,363.96 23.48%
EAST WEST BANKING CORP 8,291,599,642.55 35,333,154,415.37 23.47%
VILLAGE BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 19,616,446.39 84,544,831.29 23.20%
PHIL BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS 2,279,691,946.18 10,278,350,767.42 22.18%
MALASIQUI PROGRESSIVE SLB, INC 11,106,429.25 52,213,426.23 21.27%
HIYAS BANKING CORPORATION 34,360,654.43 162,196,397.10 21.18%
WEALTH DEVELOPMENT BANK CORPORATION 292,932,364.95 1,428,158,118.24 20.51%
OPTIMUM DEVELOPMENT BANK INC 174,457,924.11 862,100,904.11 20.24%
LIFE SAVINGS BANK INC 12,898,716.79 66,685,537.96 19.34%
FARMERS SAVINGS & LOAN BANK INC 22,411,351.29 123,861,508.80 18.09%
BUSINESS AND CONSUMERS BANK (A DB) 14,191,495.90 87,093,685.39 16.29%
CITY SAVINGS BANK INC 1,760,688,973.83 11,258,212,430.01 15.64%
PHIL STAR DEVELOPMENT BANK INC 13,667,597.78 95,600,562.55 14.30%
PHILIPPINE BUSINESS BANK INC A SAVINGS BANK 1,387,192,466.80 9,865,174,936.23 14.06%
MAYBANK PHILIPPINES INCORPORATED 1,661,195,995.76 11,942,769,431.31 13.91%
FIRST CONSOLIDATED BANK INC (A PDB) 525,049,637.72 3,921,398,077.44 13.39%
UNION BANK OF THE PHILS 7,993,445,459.90 62,091,195,752.80 12.87%
ASIA UNITED BANK CORPORATION 2,937,364,441.27 24,339,526,209.83 12.07%
CENTURY SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 117,161,921.87 977,594,202.51 11.98%
CORDILLERA SAVINGS BANK INC 16,446,654.05 137,922,232.19 11.92%
DEVELOPMENT BANK OF THE PHIL 5,464,419,478.74 45,934,092,718.50 11.90%
BANK OF COMMERCE 1,799,079,182.21 15,153,876,740.35 11.87%
YUANTA SAVINGS BANK PHILIPPINES INC 110,104,219.27 984,463,916.70 11.18%
UNIVERSITY SAVINGS BANK INC 45,003,866.22 413,430,545.96 10.89%
SUN SAVINGS BANK INC 18,959,809.67 186,900,409.10 10.14%
ANZ BANKING GROUP LTD 404,087,064.26 4,104,226,806.61 9.85%
LEMERY SAVINGS & LOAN BANK, INC. 7,700,249.95 78,452,926.42 9.82%
LAND BANK OF THE PHILIPPINES 8,258,481,213.76 88,633,984,423.30 9.32%
PHIL NATIONAL BANK 9,094,274,085.32 102,462,349,335.36 8.88%
PNB SAVINGS BANK 1,015,744,779.07 11,591,387,229.87 8.76%
BANGKO KABAYAN INC (A PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT BANK) 36,229,903.75 450,501,970.48 8.04%
BANK OF CHINA LIMITED-MANILA BRANCH 188,969,213.72 2,441,975,318.50 7.74%
CARD SME BANK INC A THRIFT BANK 55,309,326.70 730,971,718.18 7.57%
INTER-ASIA DEVELOPMENT BANK 4,613,153.85 63,960,230.92 7.21%
DUMAGUETE CITY DEV BANK INC 17,886,472.35 262,559,613.94 6.81%
CHINA BANKING CORP 3,614,348,811.57 59,031,464,070.10 6.12%
CITIBANK, N.A. 850,812,713.59 14,095,242,099.44 6.04%
BDO UNIBANK INC 16,529,874,745.48 281,630,888,488.73 5.87%
ROBINSONS BANK CORPORATION 683,406,976.50 12,115,260,786.73 5.64%
HONGKONG & SHANGHAI BANKING CORP 746,769,210.95 13,344,344,650.98 5.60%
CTBC BANK (PHILIPPINES) CORP 357,499,065.12 6,943,609,350.32 5.15%
BANK OF THE PHIL ISLANDS 8,425,699,430.98 167,104,837,324.17 5.04%
PHIL TRUST COMPANY 1,138,050,603.05 24,035,572,042.30 4.73%
RIZAL COMM'L BANKING CORP 2,570,930,099.09 63,296,711,382.13 4.06%
QUEEN CITY DEVELOPMENT BANK INC OR QUEENBANK A THRIFT BANK 26,305,413.66 654,099,419.31 4.02%
BANK ONE SAVINGS AND TRUST CORP. 23,096,226.26 580,064,633.75 3.98%
BATAAN SAVINGS AND LOAN BANK 1,635,781.28 57,924,599.63 2.82%
MERCHANTS SAVINGS & LOAN ASSN INC 17,112,936.55 622,416,521.47 2.75%
SECURITY BANK CORP 2,209,369,283.42 98,491,544,960.42 2.24%
METROPOLITAN BANK & TCO 3,755,149,756.43 189,844,343,707.17 1.98%
AL-AMANAH ISLAMIC INVESTMENT BANK OF THE PHILS 5,387,619.28 286,499,778.84 1.88%
KEB HANA BANK - MANILA BRANCH 28,066,201.64 1,587,936,331.22 1.77%
QUEZON COCONUT BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 764,046.72 59,014,544.28 1.29%
BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO LTD 37,877,890.77 3,098,933,162.94 1.22%
ING BANK N.V. 102.32 2,502,824,099.02 0.00%
BANK OF AMERICA N.A. 0.00 2,096,035,697.20 0.00%
BDO PRIVATE BANK, INC. 0.00 5,410,232,810.34 0.00%
CATHAY UNITED BANK CO LTD - MANILA BRANCH 0.00 2,130,401,780.67 0.00%
DEUTSCHE BANK AG 0.00 2,257,001,851.98 0.00%
FIRST COMMERCIAL BANK LTD MANILA BRANCH 0.00 2,031,188,854.41 0.00%
INDUSTRIAL BANK OF KOREA MANILA BRANCH 0.00 2,222,941,066.65 0.00%
ISLA BANK(A THRIFT BANK) INC 0.00 667,526,085.03 0.00%
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NATIONAL ASSN. 0.00 1,318,053,765.87 0.00%
MEGA INT'L COMM'L BANK CO LTD 0.00 1,861,262,054.27 0.00%
MIZUHO BANK LTD - MANILA BRANCH 0.00 5,574,888,253.17 0.00%
SHINHAN BANK - MANILA BRANCH 0.00 2,201,303,656.55 0.00%
SUMITOMO MITSUI BANKING CORPORATION-MANILA BRANCH 0.00 13,001,887,788.35 0.00%
THE BNK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ LTD 0.00 4,580,114,852.15 0.00%
UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED MANILA BRANCH 0.00 2,412,646,568.87 0.00%
MICROFINANCE MAXIMUM SB INC 11,538,108.54 -10,270,099.95 -112.35%
Grand Total 139,247,084,946.46 1,552,380,021,337.57 8.97%


Are NPLs the Right Numbers to Look At?

In a financial crisis, a loan that is current can very well become past due, and a past due loan can become a non-performing loan, and a non-performing loan can become a loan write-off.  The real number to look at are the loans that the banks and BSP already consider doubtful: Classified Loans.

Investopedia.com defines "Classified Loans" as:

"Any bank loan that is in danger of default. Classified loans have unpaid interest and principal outstanding, and it is unclear whether the bank will be able to recoup the loan proceeds from the borrower. Banks usually categorize such loans as adversely classified assets on their books."

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), similar to our very own Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation (PDIC), defines Classified Loans as:

"Loans classified Loss are considered uncollectible and of such little value that their continuance as bankable assets is not warranted. This classification does not mean that the loan has absolutely no recovery or salvage value but rather it is not practical or desirable to defer writing off this basically worthless asset even though partial recovery may be effected in the future."

In Circular #0247 dated May 19, 2000, BSP defines Classified Loans as loans which possess the following characteristics:
  1. Loans especially mentioned because they have potential weaknesses that deserve Management's close attention;
  2. Substandard Loans are loans which appear to involve a substantial and unreasonable degree of risk to the institution because of unfavorable record or unsatisfactory characteristics;
  3. Doubtful Loans are Substandard Loans with the added characteristics that existing facts, conditions, and values make collection or liquidation in full highly improbable and in which substantial loss is probable;
  4. Loss loans are loans that are considered uncollectible or worthless and are of such little value that their continuance as bankable assets is not warranted although the loans may have some recovery or salvage value.
The circular mandates that an allowance for probable losses should be set up in accordance with the following schedule:
  1. Loans Especially Mentioned: 5%
  2. Substandard - Secured: 6% - 25%
  3. Substandard - Unsecured: 25%
  4. Doubtful: 50%
  5. Loss: 100%
As of March 31, 2017, "Classified Loans and Other Risky Assets" of the Philippine Banks amounted to PhP 349.93 billion or almost 3 times the size of the Philippine Banking System's NPLs of PhP 139.25 billion for the same period.  Consequently, any write-offs of Classified Loans will have almost three times the impact of an NPL write-off.

Philippine Banking System
Classified Loans vs. NPLs
March 31, 2017







Classified Loans/NPL
Bank Classified Loans Gross NPLs (In %)
ING BANK N.V. 30,000,000.00 102.32 29319781.08%
BANK OF CHINA LIMITED-MANILA BRANCH 16,279,051,512.77 188,969,213.72 8614.66%
INTER-ASIA DEVELOPMENT BANK 248,961,155.00 4,613,153.85 5396.77%
QUEZON COCONUT BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 13,296,687.24 764,046.72 1740.30%
ROBINSONS BANK CORPORATION 7,399,721,000.00 683,406,976.50 1082.77%
YUANTA SAVINGS BANK PHILIPPINES INC 1,177,923,196.08 110,104,219.27 1069.83%
BANK ONE SAVINGS AND TRUST CORP. 211,776,802.54 23,096,226.26 916.93%
VILLAGE BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 171,691,000.00 19,616,446.39 875.24%
QUEEN CITY DEVELOPMENT BANK INC OR QUEENBANK A THRIFT BANK 223,630,937.63 26,305,413.66 850.13%
DUMAGUETE CITY DEV BANK INC 128,333,200.58 17,886,472.35 717.49%
PHIL TRUST COMPANY 7,695,000,000.00 1,138,050,603.05 676.16%
BANGKO KABAYAN INC (A PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT BANK) 220,917,762.55 36,229,903.75 609.77%
KEB HANA BANK - MANILA BRANCH 146,061,987.74 28,066,201.64 520.42%
BANK OF COMMERCE 8,733,341,364.12 1,799,079,182.21 485.43%
METROPOLITAN BANK & TCO 17,518,898,738.49 3,755,149,756.43 466.53%
CITIBANK, N.A. 3,640,116,299.87 850,812,713.59 427.84%
SECURITY BANK CORP 9,018,000,000.00 2,209,369,283.42 408.17%
BATAAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 102,400,000.00 27,407,967.11 373.61%
CHINA BANKING CORP 12,857,852,127.70 3,614,348,811.57 355.74%
CORDILLERA SAVINGS BANK INC 58,369,467.39 16,446,654.05 354.90%
PHIL NATIONAL BANK 31,117,271,203.83 9,094,274,085.32 342.16%
MAYBANK PHILIPPINES INCORPORATED 5,529,372,467.16 1,661,195,995.76 332.85%
UNIVERSITY SAVINGS BANK INC 140,047,123.16 45,003,866.22 311.19%
MALAYAN BANK SAVINGS AND MORT BANK INC 1,730,590,795.34 565,547,649.98 306.00%
UNION BANK OF THE PHILS 24,448,609,028.56 7,993,445,459.90 305.86%
PHIL SAVINGS BANK 14,064,980,690.81 4,666,176,343.64 301.42%
METRO CEBU PUBLIC SAVINGS BANK 69,873,900.28 24,372,080.98 286.70%
RIZAL COMM'L BANKING CORP 7,275,070,052.17 2,570,930,099.09 282.97%
BDO UNIBANK INC 45,944,748,586.32 16,529,874,745.48 277.95%
UNITED COCONUT PLANTERS BANK 17,194,349,897.69 6,385,518,030.66 269.27%
AL-AMANAH ISLAMIC INVESTMENT BANK OF THE PHILS 14,086,000.00 5,387,619.28 261.45%
LAND BANK OF THE PHILIPPINES 20,316,296,990.17 8,258,481,213.76 246.01%
PHILIPPINE RESOURCES SAVINGS BANKING CORPORATION (PR SAVINGS BANK) 2,305,455,320.91 980,710,424.09 235.08%
WORLD PARTNERS BANK (A THRIFT BANK) 233,248,015.31 112,362,449.20 207.59%
ASIA UNITED BANK CORPORATION 5,870,585,956.47 2,937,364,441.27 199.86%
LEGAZPI SAVINGS BANK INC 883,980,000.00 445,995,447.33 198.20%
DEVELOPMENT BANK OF THE PHIL 10,789,223,948.04 5,464,419,478.74 197.45%
PHIL STAR DEVELOPMENT BANK INC 26,922,007.94 13,667,597.78 196.98%
PHILIPPINE VETERANS BANK 3,486,613,522.42 1,875,995,021.68 185.85%
PENBANK INC (A PDB) (FORMERLY: PENINSULA RB INC) 306,709,326.96 168,397,257.81 182.13%
FIRST CONSOLIDATED BANK INC (A PDB) 952,700,667.65 525,049,637.72 181.45%
UCPB SAVINGS BANK 2,181,355,529.00 1,254,581,397.45 173.87%
BANK OF THE PHIL ISLANDS 14,421,243,615.42 8,425,699,430.98 171.16%
PHILIPPINE BUSINESS BANK INC A SAVINGS BANK 2,367,490,000.00 1,387,192,466.80 170.67%
RCBC SAVINGS BANK INC 6,940,955,925.00 4,431,477,476.10 156.63%
CHINA BANK SAVINGS INC 6,731,417,361.15 4,410,355,252.20 152.63%
MARITIME SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 37,130,657.86 24,499,153.86 151.56%
CTBC BANK (PHILIPPINES) CORP 534,693,605.84 357,499,065.12 149.57%
BPI FAMILY SAVINGS BANK INC 10,918,914,754.04 7,729,608,998.38 141.26%
LIFE SAVINGS BANK INC 17,512,163.62 12,898,716.79 135.77%
BANK OF MAKATI (A SAVINGS BANK) INC 2,977,949,117.72 2,272,945,790.64 131.02%
PRODUCERS SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 494,118,240.10 386,138,239.27 127.96%
PHIL POSTAL SAVINGS BANK INC 3,207,201,326.40 2,526,517,914.79 126.94%
PNB SAVINGS BANK 1,246,507,690.93 1,015,744,779.07 122.72%
BPI DIRECT BANKO INC A SAVINGS BANK 519,601,077.18 429,252,061.73 121.05%
EQUICOM SAVINGS BANK INC 772,828,274.78 646,533,823.35 119.53%
OPTIMUM DEVELOPMENT BANK INC 204,039,798.99 174,457,924.11 116.96%
CENTURY SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 136,054,603.51 117,161,921.87 116.13%
STERLING BANK OF ASIA INC (A SAVINGS BANK) 1,080,783,000.00 942,498,137.44 114.67%
CITY SAVINGS BANK INC 1,967,614,331.37 1,760,688,973.83 111.75%
LUZON DEVELOPMENT BANK 662,154,665.50 620,878,345.67 106.65%
EAST WEST BANKING CORP 8,692,840,178.42 8,291,599,642.55 104.84%
1ST VALLEY BANK INC A DEVELOPMENT BANK 447,623,271.20 428,729,538.30 104.41%
NORTHPOINT DEV'T BANK INC 102,839,228.57 99,959,947.40 102.88%
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK 2,168,529,703.48 2,124,976,632.70 102.05%
LEMERY SAVINGS & LOAN BANK, INC. 7,706,907.84 7,700,249.95 100.09%
BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO LTD 37,877,890.77 37,877,890.77 100.00%
BATAAN SAVINGS AND LOAN BANK 1,635,781.28 1,635,781.28 100.00%
HIYAS BANKING CORPORATION 34,360,654.43 34,360,654.43 100.00%
MALASIQUI PROGRESSIVE SLB, INC 11,106,429.25 11,106,429.25 100.00%
SUN SAVINGS BANK INC 18,294,765.36 18,959,809.67 96.49%
PAMPANGA DEVELOPMENT BANK 51,802,617.57 55,028,244.04 94.14%
WEALTH DEVELOPMENT BANK CORPORATION 174,873,766.38 292,932,364.95 59.70%
PHIL BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS 1,208,974,290.46 2,279,691,946.18 53.03%
HONGKONG & SHANGHAI BANKING CORP 333,592,923.25 746,769,210.95 44.67%
ANZ BANKING GROUP LTD 246,404.86 404,087,064.26 0.06%
BUSINESS AND CONSUMERS BANK (A DB) 0.00 14,191,495.90 0.00%
CARD SME BANK INC A THRIFT BANK 0.00 55,309,326.70 0.00%
CITYSTATE SAVINGS BANK INC 0.00 221,868,254.68 0.00%
ENTERPRISE BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 0.00 252,043,502.46 0.00%
FARMERS SAVINGS & LOAN BANK INC 0.00 22,411,351.29 0.00%
MERCHANTS SAVINGS & LOAN ASSN INC 0.00 17,112,936.55 0.00%
MICROFINANCE MAXIMUM SB INC 0.00 11,538,108.54 0.00%
THE PALAWAN BANK (PALAWAN DB) INC 0.00 16,672,400.66 0.00%
BANK OF AMERICA N.A. 2,184,000.00 0.00 NA
BDO PRIVATE BANK, INC. 0.00 0.00 NA
CATHAY UNITED BANK CO LTD - MANILA BRANCH 0.00 0.00 NA
DEUTSCHE BANK AG 0.00 0.00 NA
FIRST COMMERCIAL BANK LTD MANILA BRANCH 0.00 0.00 NA
INDUSTRIAL BANK OF KOREA MANILA BRANCH 0.00 0.00 NA
ISLA BANK(A THRIFT BANK) INC 0.00 0.00 NA
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NATIONAL ASSN. 0.00 0.00 NA
MEGA INT'L COMM'L BANK CO LTD 364,681,701.01 0.00 NA
MIZUHO BANK LTD - MANILA BRANCH 238,072,677.39 0.00 NA
SHINHAN BANK - MANILA BRANCH 0.00 0.00 NA
SUMITOMO MITSUI BANKING CORPORATION-MANILA BRANCH 0.00 0.00 NA
THE BNK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ LTD 35,862,400.00 0.00 NA
UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED MANILA BRANCH 0.00 0.00 NA
Grand Total 349,928,750,070.82 139,247,084,946.46 251.30%

This level of classified loans should be measured against the bank's "capital cushion" or its ability to absorb losses.  Capital Cushion is normally defined as a bank's "Tangible Common Equity" plus its Loan Loss Reserves.  Tangible Common Equity (TCE) refers to the subset of shareholders' equity that is not preferred equity and not intangible assets.  So it excludes such items as Hybrid equity (like preferred shares) and goodwill.

By this measure, the level of "Classified Loans and other Risky Assets" amounts to Php 349.93 billion or 20.66% of the Php 1.69 trillion in Total Capital Cushion of Philippine Banks as of March 31, 2017.

Stress Test Scenarios

Aggregate

So how will a 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and even 50% write-off of Classified Loans affect the Total Capital Cushion of the Philippine Banking System?

In the aggregate, if Classified Loans amount to 20.66% of the banking system's Total Capital Cushion, then it follows that a 10% write-off of Classified Loans will reduce the total capital by 2.07% and a 50% write-off of classified loans will reduce the banking system's Total Capital Cushion by 10.33%.

Individual Banks

A 10% write-off of Classified Loans would severely impact (by 30% or more) the Total Capital Cushion of two banks (severely affected banks highlighted in yellow).
  1. Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch (60.60% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Inter-Asia Development Bank (37.34% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)

A 20% write-off of Classified Loans will totally wipe out the Total Capital Cushion of one bank and severely impact the Total Capital Cushion of five more banks:


  1. Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch (121.20% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Inter-Asia Development Bank (74.69% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  3. Philippine Postal Savings Bank Inc (46.26% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  4. World Partners Bank (45.45% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  5. Village Bank Inc (33.11% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  6. United Coconut Planters Bank (32.63% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)


A 30% write-off of Classified Loans will totally wipe out the Total Capital Cushion of two banks and severely affect (reduce by 30% or more) the Total Capital Cushion of eight other banks:


  1. Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch (181.80% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Inter-Asia Development Bank (112.03% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  3. Philippine Postal Savings Bank Inc (69.40% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  4. World Partners Bank (68.18% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  5. Village Bank Inc (49.67% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  6. United Coconut Planters Bank (48.94% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  7. Malayan Bank Savings and Mort Bank (40.69% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  8. Luzon Development Bank (38.06% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  9. Yuanta Savings Bank Philippines Inc (31.88% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  10. Bataan Development Bank (30.89% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)


A 40% write-off of Classified Loans will totally wipe out the Total Capital Cushion of two banks and severely affect (reduce by 30% or more) the Total Capital Cushion of fourteen more banks:
  1. Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch (242.40% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Inter-Asia Development Bank (149.37% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  3. Philippine Postal Savings Bank Inc (92.53% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  4. World Partners Bank (90.91% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  5. Village Bank Inc (66.22% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  6. United Coconut Planters Bank (65.25% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  7. Malayan Bank Savings and Mort Bank (54.26% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  8. Luzon Development Bank (50.75% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  9. Yuanta Savings Bank Philippines Inc (42.51% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  10. Bataan Development Bank (41.19% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  11. Legazpi Savings Bank (39.29% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  12. Metro Cebu Public Savings Bank (35.55% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  13. Philippine Resources Savings Banking Corporation (34.97% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  14. Equicom Savings Bank (33.63% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  15. Maritime Savings Bank Corporation (33.59% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  16. China Bank Savings Inc (30.70% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)

A 50% write-off of Classified Loans will totally wipe out the Total Capital Cushion of four banks and severely affect (reduce by 30% or more) the Total Capital Cushion of thirteen more banks:

  1. Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch (303.00% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Inter-Asia Development Bank (186.71% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  3. Philippine Postal Savings Bank Inc (115.66% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  4. World Partners Bank (113.64% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  5. Village Bank Inc (82.72% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  6. United Coconut Planters Bank (81.57% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  7. Malayan Bank Savings and Mort Bank (67.82% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  8. Luzon Development Bank (63.43% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  9. Yuanta Savings Bank Philippines Inc (53.14% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  10. Bataan Development Bank (51.49% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  11. Legazpi Savings Bank (49.12% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  12. Metro Cebu Public Savings Bank (44.44% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  13. Philippine Resources Savings Banking Corporation (43.71% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  14. Equicom Savings Bank (42.04% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  15. Maritime Savings Bank Corporation (41.99% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  16. China Bank Savings Inc (38.37% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  17. UCPB Savings Bank (31.88% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)

Please bear in mind that a number of these banks are already very weak and are in distress.  Please see a previous blog post: "The Top Distressed Philippine Banks as of March 31, 2017".  Moreover, their capital can be overstated.  See a previous blog post "Overstated Capital of Philippine Banks as of March 31, 2017".  As such, any reduction in their capital cushion could knock down an already weak bank.

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