Philippine Commercial Banks Show Further Improvement in the 1st Qtr. of 2012

Editor's Note: The Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation (PDIC) advised consumers to wisely choose the banks where they will deposit their money. The trouble is, most depositors don't and can't read financial statements before they open a bank account. The regulators, whose job is to safeguard the public's money, have not done a good job recently.  In the past ten years, two commercial banks, twenty-one thrift banks, and a staggering 187 rural banks have collapsed, often quite suddenly and without warning:  http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/video/93600/saksi-pagsasara-ng-banco-filipino-at-lbc-devt-bank-ikinadismaya.  Regulators do have a problem bank list that they do not divulge to the public, for fear of sparking another bank run. So who can the public turn to, to advise them where to put their money? No one, except the banks themselves who will always promote their self-interests. This analysis is an attempt to fill in that knowledge gap, by screening out the weaker banks that seem ready to implode at any given moment.

Editor's Note: The ratio of Distressed Assets to Total Capital Cushion is a variant of the famous Texas Ratio, which was widely used by US financial regulators to predict bank failure during the US Savings and Loan Crisis in the 1980s and early 1990s. The basic premise is that a bank with Distressed Assets greater than its Capital Cushion is in danger of insolvency, because a significant drop in the value of  the Distressed Assets will eat into a significant amount of the bank's capital.  For a more detailed discussion of this ratio, please visit a previous blog post: The Texas Ratio of Select Philippine Banks  

Based on the individual Published Statements of Condition for the Philippine Commercial Banking Industry (from www.bsp.gov.ph), Total Distressed Assets of Philippine Commercial Banks increased by PhP 5.1 billion or 0.94% from December 31, 2011 to March 31, 2012.  This increase was offset by a 6.66% increase in their Total Capital Cushion during the same period.  As a result, the Ratio of Total Distressed Assets to Total Capital Cushion of Philippine Commercial Banks decreased by 4.24%, from 79.09% as of December 31, 2011 to 74.85% as of March 31, 2012.  The results are skewed slightly lower by the absence of Export and Industry Bank, which, as of September 30, 2011, was ranked the most insolvent bank.  See previous blog posts: "Export and Industry Bank Becomes Even More Insolvent! - September 30, 2011" and "Time is Running Out for Export and Industry Bank".  Export and Industry Bank did not have a Published Statement of Condition on www.bsp.gov.ph as of the date of this blog post.

Those banks that posted significant improvements in this ratio include:

1. United Coconut Planters Bank (35.83% decrease)
2. HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation (22.75% decrease)
3. Security Bank Corporation (19.80% decrease)
4. Bank of the Philippine Islands (19.42% decrease)
5. Asia United Bank (19.03% decrease)
6. Maybank Philippines (18.76% decrease)
7. East West Banking Corporation (17.47% decrease)

The banks that exhibited significant deterioration in this ratio include:

1. Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK (510.55% increase)
2. BDO Private Bank (33.13% increase)

Distressed Banks

None of the banks with significant increases have been classified as distressed based on their ratio of Total Distressed Assets to Total Capital Cushion as of the 1st Qtr. of  2012.

United Coconut Planters Bank continues to rank as the most distressed commercial bank in the country.  Its Total Distressed Assets are more than six times its Total Capital Cushion.  It must be noted that this ratio is down significantly from year-end 2011, when its Total Distressed Assets were ten times its Total Capital Cushion. Only one bank ranked as distressed in the 4th Qtr. of 2011 showed a deterioration in their distressed ratios as of March 31, 2012.  This bank, namely Philippine Bank of Communications, showed a 10.87% increase in its distressed ratio.

All the banks that were flagged as borderline insolvent (highlighted in yellow) as of December 31, 2011 remain borderline insolvent as of March 31, 2012.  However, as a group the distressed banks showed some improvement in their Total Distressed Assets/Total Capital Cushion Ratios.  This ratio now stands at 209.98% as of March 31, 2012, down from 218.34% as of December 31, 2011.

Philippine Commercial Banking System
Total Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011 to March 31, 2012
In PhP
Bank	December 31, 2011	March 31, 2012	Variance	% Variance
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK	11.35%	69.30%	57.95%	510.55%
BDO Private Bank, Inc.	2.49%	3.32%	0.83%	33.13%
Philippine Bank of Communications	160.10%	177.50%	17.40%	10.87%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation	64.70%	69.50%	4.80%	7.42%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company	62.99%	66.05%	3.05%	4.85%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines	15.47%	15.47%	0.00%	0.00%
Philippine National Bank	147.76%	147.39%	-0.37%	-0.25%
Bank of Commerce	162.20%	161.68%	-0.52%	-0.32%
Union Bank of the Philippines	85.31%	84.91%	-0.41%	-0.47%
Banco De Oro Unibank	59.90%	58.25%	-1.65%	-2.76%
Development Bank of the Philippines	49.44%	47.23%	-2.21%	-4.47%
Land Bank of the Philippines	65.30%	61.63%	-3.67%	-5.61%
Philippine Trust Company	55.45%	51.82%	-3.63%	-6.55%
China Banking Corporation	57.42%	53.10%	-4.32%	-7.52%
Philippine Veterans Bank	195.56%	180.74%	-14.82%	-7.58%
Allied Banking Corporation	71.45%	66.02%	-5.43%	-7.60%
Robinsons Bank Corporation	22.46%	20.50%	-1.96%	-8.73%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation	18.43%	16.53%	-1.90%	-10.30%
East West Banking Corporation	68.36%	56.41%	-11.94%	-17.47%
Maybank Philippines Inc.	51.65%	41.96%	-9.69%	-18.76%
Asia United Bank Corporation	62.14%	50.32%	-11.82%	-19.03%
Bank of the Philippine Islands	63.71%	51.34%	-12.37%	-19.42%
Security Bank Corporation	47.14%	37.80%	-9.34%	-19.80%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation	71.76%	55.44%	-16.33%	-22.75%
United Coconut Planters Bank	1003.58%	643.97%	-359.61%	-35.83%
Group Total	79.09%	74.85%	-4.24%	-5.36%
Source: www.bsp.gov.ph

Philippine Commercial Banking System
Total Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011 to March 31, 2012
In PhP
		December 31, 2011				March 31, 2012				Variance				% Variance
Bank	Total Distressed Assets (In PhP)	Total Capital Cushion (In PhP)	Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion (In %)		Total Distressed Assets (In PhP)	Total Capital Cushion (In PhP)	Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion (In %)		Total Distressed Assets (In PhP)	Total Capital Cushion (In PhP)	Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion (In %)		Total Distressed Assets (In %)	Total Capital Cushion (In %)	Distressed Assets/ Total Capital Cushion (In %)
United Coconut Planters Bank	58,210,111,052.92	5,800,229,638.98	1003.58%		58,346,163,511.76	9,060,379,410.73	643.97%		136,052,458.84	3,260,149,771.75	-359.61%		0.23%	56.21%	-35.83%
Philippine Veterans Bank	11,261,881,811.07	5,758,728,657.92	195.56%		11,386,593,846.84	6,300,066,206.28	180.74%		124,712,035.77	541,337,548.36	-14.82%		1.11%	9.40%	-7.58%
Philippine Bank of Communications	9,471,188,959.63	5,915,638,902.18	160.10%		9,605,657,632.92	5,411,642,825.75	177.50%		134,468,673.29	-503,996,076.43	17.40%		1.42%	-8.52%	10.87%
Bank of Commerce	32,929,553,535.88	20,301,508,621.47	162.20%		32,940,752,605.77	20,373,765,341.59	161.68%		11,199,069.89	72,256,720.12	-0.52%		0.03%	0.36%	-0.32%
Philippine National Bank	61,539,362,228.07	41,647,300,624.97	147.76%		60,946,464,001.47	41,349,439,614.75	147.39%		-592,898,226.60	-297,861,010.22	-0.37%		-0.96%	-0.72%	-0.25%
Union Bank of the Philippines	38,822,563,049.10	45,506,545,040.66	85.31%		38,760,712,790.01	45,650,885,590.92	84.91%		-61,850,259.09	144,340,550.26	-0.41%		-0.16%	0.32%	-0.47%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation	24,131,710,175.80	37,298,479,029.45	64.70%		26,600,710,113.13	38,273,962,830.12	69.50%		2,468,999,937.33	975,483,800.67	4.80%		10.23%	2.62%	7.42%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep BK	623,286,587.93	5,491,404,385.19	11.35%		1,834,533,107.88	2,647,280,603.37	69.30%		1,211,246,519.95	-2,844,123,781.82	57.95%		194.33%	-51.79%	510.55%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company	63,787,741,208.04	101,261,532,842.48	62.99%		65,533,760,882.97	99,222,043,905.63	66.05%		1,746,019,674.93	-2,039,488,936.85	3.05%		2.74%	-2.01%	4.85%
Allied Banking Corporation	13,475,330,400.74	18,859,833,076.12	71.45%		13,399,669,031.50	20,296,906,255.80	66.02%		-75,661,369.24	1,437,073,179.68	-5.43%		-0.56%	7.62%	-7.60%
Land Bank of the Philippines	33,266,907,399.89	50,944,842,479.97	65.30%		33,900,145,235.73	55,001,642,722.05	61.63%		633,237,835.84	4,056,800,242.08	-3.67%		1.90%	7.96%	-5.61%
Banco De Oro Unibank	65,154,415,706.61	108,776,275,232.51	59.90%		69,886,800,878.72	119,983,815,083.47	58.25%		4,732,385,172.11	11,207,539,850.96	-1.65%		7.26%	10.30%	-2.76%
East West Banking Corporation	7,972,097,612.88	11,662,142,632.92	68.36%		8,685,415,309.09	15,395,752,915.64	56.41%		713,317,696.21	3,733,610,282.72	-11.94%		8.95%	32.01%	-17.47%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation	3,990,058,443.49	5,560,159,799.26	71.76%		3,000,103,881.92	5,411,909,952.04	55.44%		-989,954,561.57	-148,249,847.22	-16.33%		-24.81%	-2.67%	-22.75%
China Banking Corporation	23,774,532,770.51	41,406,720,599.32	57.42%		22,076,228,426.80	41,575,673,227.32	53.10%		-1,698,304,343.71	168,952,628.00	-4.32%		-7.14%	0.41%	-7.52%
Philippine Trust Company	8,112,568,190.46	14,631,348,671.35	55.45%		8,561,718,369.96	16,523,217,254.71	51.82%		449,150,179.50	1,891,868,583.36	-3.63%		5.54%	12.93%	-6.55%
Bank of the Philippine Islands	50,047,779,686.11	78,556,544,290.98	63.71%		47,321,213,011.63	92,180,981,372.08	51.34%		-2,726,566,674.48	13,624,437,081.10	-12.37%		-5.45%	17.34%	-19.42%
Asia United Bank Corporation	5,941,452,139.74	9,561,736,538.00	62.14%		5,288,994,151.41	10,511,663,015.14	50.32%		-652,457,988.33	949,926,477.14	-11.82%		-10.98%	9.93%	-19.03%
Development Bank of the Philippines	17,694,996,122.18	35,788,905,692.76	49.44%		17,008,446,193.85	36,008,144,271.63	47.23%		-686,549,928.33	219,238,578.87	-2.21%		-3.88%	0.61%	-4.47%
Maybank Philippines Inc.	2,847,143,306.74	5,512,890,428.32	51.65%		3,037,504,931.61	7,239,824,313.81	41.96%		190,361,624.87	1,726,933,885.49	-9.69%		6.69%	31.33%	-18.76%
Security Bank Corporation	12,289,009,897.96	26,070,438,913.08	47.14%		12,390,822,425.97	32,777,702,285.12	37.80%		101,812,528.01	6,707,263,372.04	-9.34%		0.83%	25.73%	-19.80%
Robinsons Bank Corporation	1,173,989,648.85	5,226,473,730.40	22.46%		1,144,879,604.03	5,584,142,208.47	20.50%		-29,110,044.82	357,668,478.07	-1.96%		-2.48%	6.84%	-8.73%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation	1,112,691,065.96	6,036,104,571.35	18.43%		1,049,304,240.66	6,346,182,232.09	16.53%		-63,386,825.30	310,077,660.74	-1.90%		-5.70%	5.14%	-10.30%
Al-Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines	82,421,466.30	532,866,747.85	15.47%		82,421,466.30	532,866,747.85	15.47%		0.00	0.00	0.00%		0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
BDO Private Bank, Inc.	113,090,563.50	4,534,582,971.11	2.49%		168,810,398.09	5,084,420,800.74	3.32%		55,719,834.59	549,837,829.63	0.83%		49.27%	12.13%	33.13%
Group Total	547,825,883,030.36	692,643,234,118.60	79.09%		552,957,826,050.02	738,744,310,987.10	74.85%		5,131,943,019.66	46,101,076,868.50	-4.24%		0.94%	6.66%	-5.36%
Source: www.bsp.gov.ph

Disclaimer:

This list only serves as a screening guide.  It is not a definitive guide and must be taken in the context of other factors.  The figures are based on the individual banks' statement of condition as of December 31, 2011 and March 31, 2012 as published in the BSP website (www.bsp.gov.ph). For this analysis, no attempt was made to go through the audited financial statements of each bank. Readers are suggested to make their own investigations and verify the figures presented. Both BSP and PDIC have their own problem bank screening systems that are much more sophisticated in scope and design, given that they have more access to information over the banks they regulate.

How Leveraged is the Philippine Economy Relative to Other Global Economies?

Crossposted from my other blog: "The System is Broken"


Today is a doozy.  Spain is imploding and has followed Italy in imposing a short selling ban.  Six countries out of seventeen countries in the Eurozone are already in recession.  Greece and Ireland are in a depression. The US is at or is nearing a recession.  China, the world's second largest economy, is slowing.  So is India.

It's been obvious for some time that large swaths of Europe are in a sovereign debt crisis.  First, Iceland, then Ireland, then Greece and Portugal, and now Spain.  Italy soon to follow.  Quite a bit of blame for the crisis has been placed on the creation of the Euro currency, which allowed the monetary but not fiscal and economic union of the Eurozone countries, resulting in economic imbalances between those countries and the rest of the world.  Quite a bit of blame has also been placed on the financial leverage of those economies.  Greece, which recently had the largest debt restructuring of a sovereign nation and whose debtholders experienced a 75% haircut, will, if all goes well, still have a debt to GDP ratio of 120% by 2020!

So all this brings to mind the question: How leveraged is the Philippine economy relative to other global economies?  Are we the next Greece or Spain.  Based on the latest available data, we are at or below the global average.

With a Public Debt to GDP Ratio of 48.89% as of 2009, we are slightly above the global average of 47.90%.

Global Economies
Public Debt
As % of GDP
Year 2009
	Public Debt
Country	(% of GDP)
Liberia	224.13
Japan	217.60
Guinea-Bissau	163.31
Lebanon	147.97
Congo, Dem. Rep. of	138.26
Jamaica	137.44
Eritrea	134.97
Seychelles	127.34
Grenada	122.30
Antigua and Barbuda	118.26
Italy	115.77
Greece	115.16
Singapore	109.98
Barbados	105.36
Iceland	99.87
Belgium	96.80
Dominica	85.29
Sri Lanka	85.27
United States	84.26
Belize	81.42
Nicaragua	81.28
Sudan	80.60
Hungary	78.26
France	78.07
India	77.69
Israel	77.57
Portugal	76.30
Egypt	76.18
Bhutan	74.74
Germany	73.51
Cape Verde	70.76
Brazil	68.90
Malta	68.66
United Kingdom	68.49
Austria	67.11
Ghana	66.48
Sao Tome and Principe	65.78
Ireland	65.53
Cote d'Ivoire	65.01
Netherlands	61.77
Lao People's Democratic Republic	61.64
Jordan	61.39
Uruguay	60.65
Guyana	60.53
Albania	59.51
Argentina	59.02
Gambia, The	58.29
Congo, Republic of	57.59
Pakistan	57.29
Comoros	56.93
Cyprus	56.22
Malaysia	55.38
Togo	55.22
Cameroon	54.06
Fiji	53.50
Spain	53.10
Burundi	52.28
Yemen, Republic of	51.04
Poland	50.92
Mauritius	49.28
Kenya	49.17
Vietnam	49.04
Philippines	48.89
El Salvador	48.55
Morocco	47.71
Malawi	45.51
Turkey	45.50
Lesotho	45.35
Mexico	44.94
Thailand	44.22
Finland	43.90
Bangladesh	43.48
Tunisia	42.78
Tanzania	42.76
Sweden	41.63
Denmark	41.45
Bahamas, The	41.26
Armenia	40.63
Bolivia	40.54
Panama	39.87
Djibouti	39.53
Nepal	39.39
Switzerland	39.02
Angola	38.28
Tonga	38.25
Georgia	37.38
Qatar	36.70
Venezuela	36.38
Trinidad and Tobago	35.45
Croatia	35.41
Bosnia and Herzegovina	35.37
Czech Republic	35.34
Colombia	35.19
Ukraine	34.64
Madagascar	33.74
Latvia	32.83
Korea, Republic of	32.56
Senegal	31.96
Chad	31.41
South Africa	30.84
Romania	29.91
Lithuania	29.46
Slovenia	29.38
Mozambique	29.31
Cambodia	28.75
Indonesia	28.60
Dominican Republic	28.44
Solomon Islands	28.28
Costa Rica	28.02
Burkina Faso	27.86
Zambia	27.67
Moldova	27.56
Benin	27.52
Peru	27.38
Syrian Arab Republic	27.32
United Arab Emirates	27.12
Central African Republic	26.90
Bahrain	26.58
New Zealand	26.16
Gabon	26.07
Belarus	25.15
Haiti	24.77
Mali	23.93
Honduras	23.68
Guatemala	22.96
Uganda	22.22
Iran, Islamic Republic of	21.58
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of	20.82
Suriname	20.35
China, People's Republic of	18.59
Paraguay	18.04
Australia	17.63
Luxembourg	16.46
Bulgaria	16.06
Saudi Arabia	15.97
Niger	15.78
Namibia	15.74
Nigeria	15.49
Botswana	14.96
Ecuador	14.67
Swaziland	14.66
Kuwait	14.33
Azerbaijan	12.11
Kazakhstan	10.93
Russian Federation	10.88
Hong Kong SAR	10.22
Oman	7.75
Estonia	7.15
Chile	6.21
Maldives	0.00
Montenegro	0.00
Vanuatu	0.00
Mauritania	0.00
Serbia	0.00
Samoa	0.00
Papua New Guinea	0.00
Brunei Darussalam	0.00
Mongolia	0.00
Kosovo	0.00
Sierra Leone	0.00
Afghanistan, Islamic Rep. of	0.00
Global Average	47.90

Source: www.imf.org


With Private Debt to GDP Ratio of 48.70% as of 2009, we are way below the global average of 72.18%.

Global Economies
Private Debt
As % of GDP
Year 2009
	Private Debt
Country	(% of GDP)
Japan	327.80
Cyprus	302.90
United States	234.90
United Kingdom	229.20
Spain	229.10
Netherlands	224.10
Ireland	223.80
Denmark	221.90
Portugal	195.10
Switzerland	193.10
Luxembourg	189.80
South Africa	184.20
Iceland	182.80
Hong Kong SAR	167.80
Lebanon	163.10
Malta	157.40
New Zealand	154.20
China, People's Republic of	145.10
Liberia	144.30
Sweden	144.10
Australia	143.70
Italy	141.60
Austria	140.90
Fiji	139.60
Malaysia	137.40
Thailand	137.00
Barbados	136.30
Germany	133.10
France	128.80
Vietnam	123.00
Belgium	118.80
Greece	115.60
Eritrea	113.10
Korea, Republic of	109.40
Mauritius	106.80
Estonia	105.40
Jordan	104.60
Bahamas, The	102.70
Morocco	100.80
Antigua and Barbuda	98.00
Finland	98.00
United Arab Emirates	97.50
Singapore	97.20
Brazil	95.80
Latvia	94.30
Chile	93.50
Slovenia	93.40
Ukraine	88.60
Grenada	87.40
Kuwait	86.80
Maldives	86.50
Israel	85.90
Bahrain	84.60
Panama	83.80
Hungary	81.40
Cape Verde	78.10
Croatia	76.40
Qatar	76.20
Montenegro	76.20
Egypt	75.10
Belize	73.00
India	70.40
Lithuania	70.00
Bulgaria	69.60
Nepal	69.10
Tunisia	68.30
Albania	68.00
Nicaragua	66.70
Turkey	63.00
Vanuatu	61.60
Colombia	61.50
Poland	61.40
Czech Republic	60.50
Bangladesh	60.40
Jamaica	57.90
Honduras	54.70
Costa Rica	54.60
Kazakhstan	54.60
Bosnia and Herzegovina	52.90
Mauritania	52.90
Romania	52.70
Bolivia	49.50
Guyana	49.10
Dominica	48.70
Philippines	48.70
Pakistan	48.40
Serbia	48.00
Samoa	46.50
Namibia	46.00
El Salvador	45.40
Seychelles	44.30
Mexico	43.70
Syrian Arab Republic	43.60
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of	43.50
Tonga	43.20
Kenya	43.10
Moldova	41.40
Oman	41.30
Dominican Republic	40.60
Sri Lanka	39.60
Guatemala	39.20
Papua New Guinea	39.00
Iran, Islamic Republic of	37.20
Indonesia	37.00
Nigeria	36.90
Solomon Islands	35.10
Belarus	34.10
Russian Federation	33.70
Georgia	32.90
Djibouti	32.30
Trinidad and Tobago	32.30
Brunei Darussalam	32.20
Malawi	32.00
Bhutan	30.90
Paraguay	30.20
Mongolia	29.60
Angola	29.20
Uruguay	28.80
Ghana	28.70
Gambia, The	28.60
Argentina	28.00
Togo	27.30
Senegal	26.60
Suriname	26.20
Venezuela	25.90
Sao Tome and Principe	25.40
Ecuador	24.40
Haiti	23.60
Burundi	23.40
Cote d'Ivoire	23.00
Mozambique	22.60
Azerbaijan	22.50
Lao People's Democratic Republic	20.80
Comoros	20.50
Yemen, Republic of	20.30
Sudan	20.00
Armenia	20.00
Benin	19.30
Cambodia	19.10
Peru	18.90
Zambia	18.50
Tanzania	18.10
Central African Republic	15.30
Burkina Faso	14.80
Kosovo	14.10
Niger	12.50
Madagascar	11.80
Uganda	11.80
Sierra Leone	10.90
Mali	10.70
Swaziland	9.10
Cameroon	8.30
Chad	8.00
Gabon	7.60
Congo, Dem. Rep. of	7.30
Guinea-Bissau	4.90
Afghanistan, Islamic Rep. of	3.40
Saudi Arabia	0.60
Botswana	-1.00
Lesotho	-14.70
Congo, Republic of	-15.90
Global Average	72.18
Source: www.worldbank.org, www.imf.org

In terms of our Total Debt to GDP Ratio, the Philippines has a Total Debt to GDP Ratio of 97.59% as of 2009, far below the global average of 120.07%.

Global Economies
Public Debt, Private Debt, and Total Debt
As % of GDP
Year 2009
	Public Debt	Private Debt	Total Debt
Country	(% of GDP)	(% of GDP)	(% of GDP)
Japan	217.60	327.80	545.40
Liberia	224.13	144.30	368.43
Cyprus	56.22	302.90	359.12
United States	84.26	234.90	319.16
Lebanon	147.97	163.10	311.07
United Kingdom	68.49	229.20	297.69
Ireland	65.53	223.80	289.33
Netherlands	61.77	224.10	285.87
Iceland	99.87	182.80	282.67
Spain	53.10	229.10	282.20
Portugal	76.30	195.10	271.40
Denmark	41.45	221.90	263.35
Italy	115.77	141.60	257.37
Eritrea	134.97	113.10	248.07
Barbados	105.36	136.30	241.66
Switzerland	39.02	193.10	232.12
Greece	115.16	115.60	230.76
Malta	68.66	157.40	226.06
Antigua and Barbuda	118.26	98.00	216.26
Belgium	96.80	118.80	215.60
South Africa	30.84	184.20	215.04
Grenada	122.30	87.40	209.70
Austria	67.11	140.90	208.01
Singapore	109.98	97.20	207.18
France	78.07	128.80	206.87
Germany	73.51	133.10	206.61
Luxembourg	16.46	189.80	206.26
Jamaica	137.44	57.90	195.34
Fiji	53.50	139.60	193.10
Malaysia	55.38	137.40	192.78
Sweden	41.63	144.10	185.73
Thailand	44.22	137.00	181.22
New Zealand	26.16	154.20	180.36
Hong Kong SAR	10.22	167.80	178.02
Vietnam	49.04	123.00	172.04
Seychelles	127.34	44.30	171.64
Guinea-Bissau	163.31	4.90	168.21
Jordan	61.39	104.60	165.99
Brazil	68.90	95.80	164.70
China, People's Republic of	18.59	145.10	163.69
Israel	77.57	85.90	163.47
Australia	17.63	143.70	161.33
Hungary	78.26	81.40	159.66
Mauritius	49.28	106.80	156.08
Belize	81.42	73.00	154.42
Egypt	76.18	75.10	151.28
Cape Verde	70.76	78.10	148.86
Morocco	47.71	100.80	148.51
India	77.69	70.40	148.09
Nicaragua	81.28	66.70	147.98
Congo, Dem. Rep. of	138.26	7.30	145.56
Bahamas, The	41.26	102.70	143.96
Korea, Republic of	32.56	109.40	141.96
Finland	43.90	98.00	141.90
Dominica	85.29	48.70	133.99
Albania	59.51	68.00	127.51
Latvia	32.83	94.30	127.13
Sri Lanka	85.27	39.60	124.87
United Arab Emirates	27.12	97.50	124.62
Panama	39.87	83.80	123.67
Ukraine	34.64	88.60	123.24
Slovenia	29.38	93.40	122.78
Qatar	36.70	76.20	112.90
Estonia	7.15	105.40	112.55
Poland	50.92	61.40	112.32
Croatia	35.41	76.40	111.81
Bahrain	26.58	84.60	111.18
Tunisia	42.78	68.30	111.08
Guyana	60.53	49.10	109.63
Turkey	45.50	63.00	108.50
Nepal	39.39	69.10	108.49
Pakistan	57.29	48.40	105.69
Bhutan	74.74	30.90	105.64
Bangladesh	43.48	60.40	103.88
Kuwait	14.33	86.80	101.13
Sudan	80.60	20.00	100.60
Chile	6.21	93.50	99.71
Lithuania	29.46	70.00	99.46
Philippines	48.89	48.70	97.59
Colombia	35.19	61.50	96.69
Czech Republic	35.34	60.50	95.84
Ghana	66.48	28.70	95.18
El Salvador	48.55	45.40	93.95
Kenya	49.17	43.10	92.27
Sao Tome and Principe	65.78	25.40	91.18
Bolivia	40.54	49.50	90.04
Uruguay	60.65	28.80	89.45
Mexico	44.94	43.70	88.64
Bosnia and Herzegovina	35.37	52.90	88.27
Cote d'Ivoire	65.01	23.00	88.01
Argentina	59.02	28.00	87.02
Gambia, The	58.29	28.60	86.89
Maldives	0.00	86.50	86.50
Bulgaria	16.06	69.60	85.66
Costa Rica	28.02	54.60	82.62
Romania	29.91	52.70	82.61
Togo	55.22	27.30	82.52
Lao People's Democratic Republic	61.64	20.80	82.44
Tonga	38.25	43.20	81.45
Honduras	23.68	54.70	78.38
Malawi	45.51	32.00	77.51
Comoros	56.93	20.50	77.43
Montenegro	0.00	76.20	76.20
Burundi	52.28	23.40	75.68
Djibouti	39.53	32.30	71.83
Yemen, Republic of	51.04	20.30	71.34
Syrian Arab Republic	27.32	43.60	70.92
Georgia	37.38	32.90	70.28
Dominican Republic	28.44	40.60	69.04
Moldova	27.56	41.40	68.96
Trinidad and Tobago	35.45	32.30	67.75
Angola	38.28	29.20	67.48
Indonesia	28.60	37.00	65.60
Kazakhstan	10.93	54.60	65.53
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of	20.82	43.50	64.32
Solomon Islands	28.28	35.10	63.38
Cameroon	54.06	8.30	62.36
Venezuela	36.38	25.90	62.28
Guatemala	22.96	39.20	62.16
Namibia	15.74	46.00	61.74
Vanuatu	0.00	61.60	61.60
Tanzania	42.76	18.10	60.86
Armenia	40.63	20.00	60.63
Belarus	25.15	34.10	59.25
Iran, Islamic Republic of	21.58	37.20	58.78
Senegal	31.96	26.60	58.56
Mauritania	0.00	52.90	52.90
Nigeria	15.49	36.90	52.39
Mozambique	29.31	22.60	51.91
Oman	7.75	41.30	49.05
Haiti	24.77	23.60	48.37
Paraguay	18.04	30.20	48.24
Serbia	0.00	48.00	48.00
Cambodia	28.75	19.10	47.85
Benin	27.52	19.30	46.82
Suriname	20.35	26.20	46.55
Samoa	0.00	46.50	46.50
Peru	27.38	18.90	46.28
Zambia	27.67	18.50	46.17
Madagascar	33.74	11.80	45.54
Russian Federation	10.88	33.70	44.58
Burkina Faso	27.86	14.80	42.66
Central African Republic	26.90	15.30	42.20
Congo, Republic of	57.59	-15.90	41.69
Chad	31.41	8.00	39.41
Ecuador	14.67	24.40	39.07
Papua New Guinea	0.00	39.00	39.00
Mali	23.93	10.70	34.63
Azerbaijan	12.11	22.50	34.61
Uganda	22.22	11.80	34.02
Gabon	26.07	7.60	33.67
Brunei Darussalam	0.00	32.20	32.20
Lesotho	45.35	-14.70	30.65
Mongolia	0.00	29.60	29.60
Niger	15.78	12.50	28.28
Swaziland	14.66	9.10	23.76
Saudi Arabia	15.97	0.60	16.57
Kosovo	0.00	14.10	14.10
Botswana	14.96	-1.00	13.96
Sierra Leone	0.00	10.90	10.90
Afghanistan, Islamic Rep. of	0.00	3.40	3.40
Global Average	47.90	72.18	120.07
Source: www.worldbank.org, www.imf.org

The Philippines is totally not out of the woods yet.  Since at least 60% of the global economy is experiencing a slowdown, there's a strong chance that the Philippine economy will experience a slowdown as well in the not too distant future. Let's not forget that the economies of Iceland, Ireland, and Spain were brought down by a banking crisis.  Iceland's banking sector was huge relative to the size of its economy and when the financial crisis of 2008 struck, it's banking system collapsed as well.  Both Ireland and Spain experienced massive real estate bubbles.  The their subsequent bursting led to an explosion of non-performing loans in the banking system.  The ratio of Philippine NPLs to GDP was only 1.61% as of 2011, well below the global average of 5.56% for the same period.  Lest we get too complacent, we have to remember that Ireland's NPL to GDP ratio was only 1.56% in 2007.  A year later, during the 2008 financial crisis, it was 5.39%.  The following year, it nearly quadrupled to 20.14% and has remained above 20% ever since.  We could suffer the same fate, if we're not too careful.

Global Economies
NPL as a % of GDP
2007 to 2010
Country name	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Iceland	0.00%	0.00%	82.63%	66.59%	56.92%
Ireland	1.56%	5.39%	20.14%	20.06%	20.76%
Cyprus	0.00%	10.08%	13.63%	17.68%	20.14%
Greece	5.12%	5.80%	8.90%	15.13%	17.08%
Latvia	0.72%	3.22%	15.47%	17.02%	14.59%
Malta	6.94%	6.91%	8.81%	11.22%	11.62%
Ukraine	1.83%	3.20%	12.14%	12.16%	11.30%
Lithuania	0.60%	2.95%	13.51%	12.73%	10.98%
United States	3.42%	6.66%	12.68%	11.41%	10.97%
Kazakhstan	0.00%	2.76%	11.58%	10.81%	10.68%
Serbia	0.00%	4.55%	7.44%	9.73%	10.23%
Croatia	3.44%	3.65%	5.96%	9.21%	10.18%
Albania	2.11%	4.36%	7.14%	9.33%	9.95%
Bulgaria	1.17%	1.61%	4.45%	8.44%	9.64%
Denmark	1.23%	2.52%	7.32%	8.83%	9.06%
Hungary	1.74%	2.43%	5.45%	7.92%	7.87%
Romania	0.91%	1.33%	4.16%	6.53%	7.37%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.86%	2.08%	3.12%	7.41%	6.75%
Pakistan	3.68%	5.59%	6.10%	6.81%	6.65%
Lebanon	18.34%	12.62%	9.79%	7.07%	6.60%
Portugal	2.32%	3.20%	5.46%	6.90%	6.53%
Netherlands	0.00%	3.33%	7.17%	5.94%	5.70%
Morocco	7.19%	5.92%	5.54%	4.66%	5.59%
Poland	2.41%	2.69%	4.91%	5.59%	5.56%
Thailand	10.40%	7.44%	7.26%	5.28%	5.28%
Ghana	1.47%	2.15%	4.65%	5.00%	4.76%
Estonia	0.45%	1.82%	5.48%	5.34%	4.46%
South Africa	2.73%	6.78%	10.87%	10.58%	4.42%
Macedonia, FYR	2.51%	2.77%	3.87%	4.37%	4.25%
Moldova	1.49%	2.07%	6.79%	4.95%	4.23%
Bhutan	0.00%	0.00%	2.10%	2.11%	3.89%
Malaysia	7.37%	5.52%	4.95%	4.49%	3.83%
Czech Republic	1.39%	1.78%	3.15%	3.90%	3.81%
Austria	2.79%	2.49%	3.24%	3.85%	3.65%
Georgia	0.81%	4.19%	5.86%	4.15%	3.53%
Russian Federation	0.61%	0.91%	3.20%	3.15%	3.26%
Australia	0.82%	1.86%	2.87%	3.25%	3.21%
Brazil	2.77%	3.00%	4.02%	2.95%	3.15%
Mauritius	2.48%	2.16%	3.52%	3.11%	3.10%
Kenya	3.94%	3.59%	3.40%	3.21%	2.81%
Seychelles	1.81%	1.34%	1.68%	2.85%	2.60%
Sierra Leone	0.20%	1.32%	1.16%	2.87%	2.58%
Chile	0.68%	0.93%	2.71%	2.40%	2.40%
Turkey	1.77%	2.00%	3.53%	2.64%	2.15%
Colombia	1.68%	2.16%	2.46%	1.90%	1.91%
El Salvador	0.98%	1.30%	1.68%	1.74%	1.74%
Philippines*	2.80%	2.13%	2.00%	1.87%	1.61%
China	7.92%	2.90%	2.32%	1.61%	1.60%
Hong Kong SAR, China	1.00%	1.50%	2.68%	1.59%	1.48%
Armenia	0.29%	0.75%	0.96%	0.77%	1.43%
Dominican Republic	1.57%	1.33%	1.62%	1.15%	1.21%
Costa Rica	0.58%	0.81%	1.09%	0.96%	1.17%
Indonesia	1.66%	1.18%	1.22%	0.95%	1.12%
Belarus	0.51%	0.56%	1.43%	1.59%	1.07%
Panama	1.23%	1.46%	1.17%	0.96%	1.01%
Namibia	1.36%	1.36%	1.24%	1.06%	0.98%
Bolivia	3.00%	2.08%	1.73%	1.09%	0.95%
Ecuador	0.84%	0.76%	1.00%	0.92%	0.95%
Mexico	0.89%	1.12%	1.22%	0.90%	0.91%
Oman	1.05%	0.61%	1.45%	1.24%	0.87%
Guatemala	0.61%	0.84%	1.06%	0.81%	0.78%
Venezuela, RB	0.24%	0.38%	0.78%	0.77%	0.73%
Paraguay	0.25%	0.28%	0.48%	0.42%	0.62%
Mozambique	0.26%	0.26%	0.41%	0.49%	0.57%
Luxembourg	0.73%	1.10%	1.33%	0.37%	0.51%
Finland	0.26%	0.35%	0.59%	0.60%	0.50%
Argentina	0.77%	0.66%	0.84%	0.53%	0.47%
Peru	0.43%	0.42%	0.51%	0.47%	0.47%
Uganda	0.23%	0.27%	0.50%	0.35%	0.47%
Lesotho	-0.55%	-0.74%	-0.54%	-0.23%	0.02%
Montenegro	2.50%	6.34%	10.29%	14.26%	NA
Italy	5.90%	6.47%	9.91%	12.08%	NA
Spain	1.78%	6.01%	9.39%	10.76%	NA
Tunisia	11.33%	10.17%	9.02%	8.93%	NA
United Kingdom	1.69%	3.42%	8.02%	8.90%	NA
Jordan	4.69%	4.66%	7.01%	7.89%	NA
Egypt, Arab Rep.	16.23%	11.50%	10.06%	7.63%	NA
Nigeria	1.92%	0.08%	10.74%	6.14%	NA
Kuwait	2.61%	4.44%	9.98%	5.87%	NA
Japan	4.17%	5.12%	6.23%	5.87%	NA
Senegal	4.54%	4.26%	4.97%	5.86%	NA
France	3.29%	3.48%	4.64%	5.58%	NA
United Arab Emirates	1.74%	1.68%	4.19%	5.17%	NA
Slovenia	1.47%	1.57%	2.15%	3.51%	NA
Belgium	1.34%	1.92%	3.68%	3.28%	NA
Korea, Rep.	0.69%	1.20%	1.31%	1.96%	NA
India	1.52%	1.56%	1.62%	1.75%	NA
Singapore	1.04%	1.40%	2.33%	1.51%	NA
Swaziland	0.49%	0.14%	0.74%	1.38%	NA
Gabon	0.22%	0.52%	0.55%	1.00%	NA
Uruguay	0.27%	0.35%	0.35%	0.32%	NA
Germany	3.37%	3.67%	4.39%	NA	NA
Sweden	0.78%	1.35%	2.88%	NA	NA
Israel	1.31%	1.35%	1.20%	NA	NA
Switzerland	0.55%	0.91%	0.77%	NA	NA
Kosovo	0.00%	0.39%	0.62%	NA	NA
Global Average	2.28%	2.78%	5.48%	5.76%	5.56%
* Estimated 2011
Source: www.worldbank.org, www.bsp.gov.ph