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Friday, October 5, 2012

A Simple Stress Test of Philippine Commercial Banks as of March 31, 2012

Editor's Note: This is an updated version of an earlier blog post entitled: "A Simple Stress Test of Philippine Commercial Banks".


In an April 9, 2009 article entitled "Stress Test Proves Strength of PH Banks", "Philippine banks are seen to survive a disaster in which the various lenders are forced to write off loans as large as PhP 36 billion without asking shareholders, the central bank, or the national government for bailout money."  This assertion stems from a recent stress test conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on all 55 regular and commercial and expanded license banks.

A Real Stress Test?

According to Johnny Noe Ravalo, BSP Managing Director, the balance sheet of Philippine Banks is so strong that they can afford a 20%, 30%, or even a 50% loan write-off and still have the liquidity to survive.  He maintained that the "Philippine banks have built a strong reserve of liquid assets over the years when profits were plowed back to the business instead of being distributed as dividends for shareholders who naturally covet them."  He declared that "even if the banks were forced today to declare half of the PhP 73.2 billion non-performing loans at end January this year as a total loss, all the banks should still be in operation and none the worse for wear the following day."

In a sense, this is true.  NPLs currently comprised PhP 77.655 billion or 10.43% of the Stockholders Equity of the Philippine Commercial Banking System as of March 31, 2012.  So, writing off 50% of the NPLs of the Philippine Commercial Banks would reduce their aggregate stockholders equity by a little more than 5%.  Naturally, some bank would be more affected than others.  The most affected bank is Standard Chartered Bank, a foreign bank whose local subsidiary has little or no capital.  In a crisis, it would rely on its "home-host" arrangement wherein the mother ship (the foreign parent) sends more funds and/or capital when local regulators or counterparties require it.  The next two banks, Philippine Veterans Bank and Bank of Commerce, are already considered weak (See: "Philippine Commercial Banks Show Further Improvement in the 1st Qtr. of 2012") but a 15% reduction in their stockholders equity would be a major but not necessarily lethal wound. (Weak banks are highlighted in yellow)


Philippine Commercial Banking System
NPL as % of SE
March 31, 2012









NPL SE NPL/SE
Bank (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Standard Chartered Bank 1,143,617,774.62 1,306,230,414.81 87.55%
Philippine Veterans Bank 1,778,672,048.33 5,261,907,247.41 33.80%
Bank of Commerce 6,220,748,917.22 19,531,355,463.52 31.85%
United Coconut Planters Bank 4,616,649,136.80 17,895,564,429.08 25.80%
Allied Banking Corporation 3,555,390,024.89 18,065,606,042.95 19.68%
Philippine National Bank 6,693,723,286.21 36,654,293,490.05 18.26%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 851,487,295.89 4,852,503,309.39 17.55%
East West Banking Corporation 2,176,706,583.32 13,313,574,609.14 16.35%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 841,786,418.14 5,351,071,269.49 15.73%
Development Bank of the Philippines 5,439,228,424.71 38,140,888,446.93 14.26%
Citibank N.A. 1,073,738,265.84 7,798,122,283.60 13.77%
Banco De Oro Unibank Inc. 13,360,637,051.26 98,807,290,670.51 13.52%
China Banking Corporation 4,269,236,686.52 36,835,361,632.68 11.59%
Land Bank of the Philippines 8,054,725,930.55 70,094,481,720.76 11.49%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 570,305,290.15 5,315,208,370.33 10.73%
Union Bank of the Philippines 2,964,664,674.04 40,655,375,592.49 7.29%
Korea Exchange Bank 34,374,632.02 518,588,577.59 6.63%
Philippine Trust Company 956,633,100.98 15,430,714,876.97 6.20%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 5,296,281,760.20 88,219,897,458.02 6.00%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 357,060,889.15 6,075,781,712.98 5.88%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 4,845,154,297.61 105,180,575,473.51 4.61%
Asia United Bank 434,043,308.35 9,940,242,367.46 4.37%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 1,235,495,282.80 41,519,821,454.71 2.98%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. 28,514,155.55 1,139,977,349.27 2.50%
Security Bank Corporation 725,943,238.00 31,432,971,028.36 2.31%
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 8,660,895.91 627,073,822.36 1.38%
Philippine Bank of Communications 97,945,495.60 7,931,155,088.99 1.23%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 23,339,114.85 2,262,570,661.61 1.03%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 125,938.80 722,158,670.65 0.02%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep Bank 87.84 2,666,677,041.42 0.00%
Bank of America N.A. 0.00 596,946,705.20 0.00%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 5,129,217,466.83 0.00%
Deutsche Bank AG 0.00 1,479,134,481.18 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase Bank National Association 0.00 1,776,225,884.07 0.00%
Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd 0.00 646,824,154.50 0.00%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd - Manila Branch 0.00 1,470,853,832.00 0.00%
Al Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines NA NA NA
Grand Total 77,654,890,006.15 744,646,243,100.82 10.43%


Source: www.bsp.gov.ph

But are NPLs the right numbers to look at?  NPLs are at historic lows and, as a result, make up very little of Stockholders Equity.  (See"U/KBs' NPL Ratio at 2.23 Percent"  and "The NPL Ratio of the Philippine Commercial Banking System is at Historic Lows").  The reason for this  is that the Philippine economy is currently doing well and the Philippine Stock Market is at or near its all time highs.

 Classified Loans

Focusing on NPL write-offs is not the answer.  In an economic downturn, a loan that is current can very well become past due, and a past due loan can become a non-performing loan, and a non-performing loan can become a write-off.  The real number to look at are the loans that the banks and BSP already consider doubtful: Classified Loans.

Investopedia.com defines "Classified Loans" as:

"Any bank loan that is in danger of default. Classified loans have unpaid interest and principal outstanding, and it is unclear whether the bank will be able to recoup the loan proceeds from the borrower. Banks usually categorize such loans as adversely classified assets on their books."

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), similar to our very own Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation (PDIC), defines Classified Loans as:

"Loans classified Loss are considered uncollectible and of such little value that their continuance as bankable assets is not warranted. This classification does not mean that the loan has absolutely no recovery or salvage value but rather it is not practical or desirable to defer writing off this basically worthless asset even though partial recovery may be effected in the future."

It is not clear as to how the BSP defines Classified Loans but their definition should hew very closely to the FDIC's own definition.

As of March 31, 2012, "Classified Loans and Other Risky Assets" of the Philippine Commercial Banking System amounted to PhP 293.959 billion or almost four times the size of the commercial banking NPLs of PhP 77.654 billion as of the same period.  Consequently, any write-offs of classified loans will have almost four times the impact of an NPL write-off.



Philippine Commercial Banking System
Classified Loans vs. NPLs
March 31, 2012









Classified Loans NPLs Classified Loans/NPLs
Bank (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Internationale Nederlanden Groep Bank 453,928,750.00 87.84 516767702.64%
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,315,029,218.84 8,660,895.91 49821.97%
Korea Exchange Bank 712,093,874.41 34,374,632.02 2071.57%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 2,591,619.65 125,938.80 2057.84%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 725,943,238.00 1458.50%
Citibank N.A. 11,710,138,000.00 1,073,738,265.84 1090.60%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 13,053,804,738.07 1,235,495,282.80 1056.56%
Philippine Bank of Communications 946,182,350.55 97,945,495.60 966.03%
Asia United Bank 3,738,552,378.79 434,043,308.35 861.33%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 4,616,649,136.80 675.04%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,474,997,913.84 2,964,664,674.04 623.17%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 23,972,968,161.12 4,845,154,297.61 494.78%
Philippine National Bank 31,763,474,568.47 6,693,723,286.21 474.53%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 96,449,188.22 23,339,114.85 413.25%
Philippine Trust Company 3,929,953,460.82 956,633,100.98 410.81%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,273,873,593.43 5,296,281,760.20 401.68%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 6,220,748,917.22 381.61%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 1,778,672,048.33 379.44%
China Banking Corporation 11,651,793,706.14 4,269,236,686.52 272.92%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,827,768,388.42 1,143,617,774.62 247.27%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 3,555,390,024.89 229.52%
Land Bank of the Philippines 18,177,292,868.63 8,054,725,930.55 225.67%
Banco De Oro Unibank Inc. 28,741,142,295.91 13,360,637,051.26 215.12%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,581,335,067.22 841,786,418.14 187.85%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,892,100,314.58 5,439,228,424.71 181.87%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 2,176,706,583.32 169.66%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,495,099.77 851,487,295.89 103.76%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 570,305,290.15 100.22%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. 28,514,155.55 28,514,155.55 100.00%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 126,415,493.33 357,060,889.15 35.40%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 0.00 NA
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 0.00 NA
Deutsche Bank AG 444,077,728.69 0.00 NA
JP Morgan Chase Bank National Association 0.00 0.00 NA
Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd 472,228,786.41 0.00 NA
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd - Manila Branch 17,226,890.96 0.00 NA
Al Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines NA NA NA
Grand Total 293,958,690,543.61 77,654,890,006.15 378.54%

Source: www.bsp.gov.ph


This level of classified loans should be measured against the bank's "capital cushion" or its ability to absorb losses.  Capital Cushion is normally defined as a bank's 
"Tangible Common Equity" plus its Loan Loss Reserves.  Tangible Common Equity (TCE) refers to the subset of shareholders' equity that is not preferred equity and not intangible assets.  So it excludes such items as Hybrid equity (like preferred shares) and goodwill.

By this measure, the level of "Classified Loans and other Risky Assets" amounts to 38.37% of the PhP 766.042 billion in Total Capital Cushion of Philippine Commercial Banks as of March 31, 2012.

Philippine Commercial Banking System
Classified Loans as % of Total Capital Cushion
March 31, 2012









Classified Loans Total Capital Cushion Classified Loans/Total Capital Cushion
Bank (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,315,029,218.84 663,748,557.62 650.10%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 9,060,379,410.73 343.96%
Korea Exchange Bank 712,093,874.41 595,935,938.76 119.49%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 20,373,765,341.59 116.52%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 6,300,066,206.28 107.13%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,827,768,388.42 2,936,275,345.21 96.30%
Citibank N.A. 11,710,138,000.00 13,006,383,161.93 90.03%
Philippine National Bank 31,763,474,568.47 41,349,439,614.75 76.82%
Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd 472,228,786.41 779,516,337.45 60.58%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,474,997,913.84 45,650,885,590.92 40.47%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 20,296,906,255.80 40.20%
Asia United Bank 3,738,552,378.79 10,511,663,015.14 35.57%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 13,053,804,738.07 38,273,962,830.12 34.11%
Land Bank of the Philippines 18,177,292,868.63 55,001,642,722.05 33.05%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 32,777,702,285.12 32.30%
Deutsche Bank AG 444,077,728.69 1,464,033,068.01 30.33%
China Banking Corporation 11,651,793,706.14 41,575,673,227.32 28.03%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,892,100,314.58 36,008,144,271.63 27.47%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 23,972,968,161.12 99,222,043,905.63 24.16%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 15,395,752,915.64 23.99%
Banco De Oro Unibank Inc. 28,741,142,295.91 119,983,815,083.47 23.95%
Philippine Trust Company 3,929,953,460.82 16,523,217,254.71 23.78%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,273,873,593.43 92,180,981,372.08 23.08%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,581,335,067.22 7,239,824,313.81 21.84%
Philippine Bank of Communications 946,182,350.55 5,411,642,825.75 17.48%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep Bank 453,928,750.00 2,647,280,603.37 17.15%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,495,099.77 5,411,909,952.04 16.33%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 5,584,142,208.47 10.24%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 96,449,188.22 2,494,420,532.05 3.87%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. 28,514,155.55 1,200,501,701.00 2.38%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 126,415,493.33 6,346,182,232.09 1.99%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 602,446,709.20 1.10%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd - Manila Branch 17,226,890.96 1,609,503,869.46 1.07%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 2,591,619.65 1,075,343,701.11 0.24%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 5,084,420,800.74 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase Bank National Association 0.00 1,402,016,000.00 0.00%
Al Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines NA NA NA
Grand Total 293,958,690,543.61 766,041,569,161.05 38.37%

Source: www.bsp.gov.ph

Stress Test Scenarios

Aggregate

So how will a 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and even 50% write-off of Classified Loans affect the Total Capital Cushion of the Philippine Commercial Banking System?

In the aggregate, if classified loans amount to 38.37% of the commercial banking system's total capital cushion, then it follows that a 10% write-off of classified loans will reduce the total capital by 3.84% and a 50% write-off of classified loans will reduce the commercial banking system's total capital cushion by 19.20%.

Individual Banks

Under this scenario, a 10% and 20% write-off of classified loans could totally wipe out the total capital cushion of two banks:

  1. Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch (65.01% to 325.05% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. United Coconut Planters Bank (34.40% to 171.98% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
A 30% write-off of Classified Loans will severely affect (reduce by 30% or more) the total capital cushion of three more banks:

  1. Korea Exchange Bank (35.85% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Bank of Commerce (34.96% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  3. Philippine Veterans Bank (32.14% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)

A 40% and 50% write-off of Classified Loans will severely affect four more banks:
  1. Standard Chartered Bank (38.52% to 48.15% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  2. Citibank N.A. (36.01% to 45.02% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  3. Philippine National Bank (30.41% to 38.41% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)
  4. Mega International Commercial Bank Co Ltd (30.29% reduction in Total Capital Cushion)

Please bear in mind that a number of these banks are already very weak and are in distress.  See a previous blog post "Philippine Commercial Banks Show Further Improvement in the 1st Qtr. of 2012".  Moreover, their capital can be overstated.  See a previous blog post "Can Philippine Commercial Banks Charge their Unbooked Losses Against Retained Earnings?".  As such, any reduction in their capital cushion could knock down an already weak bank.


Philippine Commercial Banking System
Classified Loans as % of Total Capital Cushion
December 31, 2011

















Classified Loans Total Capital Cushion Impact of 10% Loss on Total Capital Cushion Impact of 20% Loss on Total Capital Cushion Impact of 30% Loss on Total Capital Cushion Impact of 40% Loss on Total Capital Cushion Impact of 50% Loss on Total Capital Cushion
Bank (In PHP) (In PHP) (In %) (In %) (In %) (In %) (In %)
Bank of China Limited - Manila Branch 4,315,029,218.84 663,748,557.62 65.01% 130.02% 195.03% 260.04% 325.05%
United Coconut Planters Bank 31,164,000,000.00 9,060,379,410.73 34.40% 68.79% 103.19% 137.58% 171.98%
Korea Exchange Bank 712,093,874.41 595,935,938.76 11.95% 23.90% 35.85% 47.80% 59.75%
Bank of Commerce 23,738,866,000.00 20,373,765,341.59 11.65% 23.30% 34.96% 46.61% 58.26%
Philippine Veterans Bank 6,749,026,000.00 6,300,066,206.28 10.71% 21.43% 32.14% 42.85% 53.56%
Standard Chartered Bank 2,827,768,388.42 2,936,275,345.21 9.63% 19.26% 28.89% 38.52% 48.15%
Citibank N.A. 11,710,138,000.00 13,006,383,161.93 9.00% 18.01% 27.01% 36.01% 45.02%
Philippine National Bank 31,763,474,568.47 41,349,439,614.75 7.68% 15.36% 23.05% 30.73% 38.41%
Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd 472,228,786.41 779,516,337.45 6.06% 12.12% 18.17% 24.23% 30.29%
Union Bank of the Philippines 18,474,997,913.84 45,650,885,590.92 4.05% 8.09% 12.14% 16.19% 20.24%
Allied Banking Corporation 8,160,196,816.62 20,296,906,255.80 4.02% 8.04% 12.06% 16.08% 20.10%
Asia United Bank 3,738,552,378.79 10,511,663,015.14 3.56% 7.11% 10.67% 14.23% 17.78%
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation 13,053,804,738.07 38,273,962,830.12 3.41% 6.82% 10.23% 13.64% 17.05%
Land Bank of the Philippines 18,177,292,868.63 55,001,642,722.05 3.30% 6.61% 9.91% 13.22% 16.52%
Security Bank Corporation 10,587,883,000.00 32,777,702,285.12 3.23% 6.46% 9.69% 12.92% 16.15%
Deutsche Bank AG 444,077,728.69 1,464,033,068.01 3.03% 6.07% 9.10% 12.13% 15.17%
China Banking Corporation 11,651,793,706.14 41,575,673,227.32 2.80% 5.61% 8.41% 11.21% 14.01%
Development Bank of the Philippines 9,892,100,314.58 36,008,144,271.63 2.75% 5.49% 8.24% 10.99% 13.74%
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 23,972,968,161.12 99,222,043,905.63 2.42% 4.83% 7.25% 9.66% 12.08%
East West Banking Corporation 3,693,052,000.00 15,395,752,915.64 2.40% 4.80% 7.20% 9.59% 11.99%
Banco De Oro Unibank Inc. 28,741,142,295.91 119,983,815,083.47 2.40% 4.79% 7.19% 9.58% 11.98%
Philippine Trust Company 3,929,953,460.82 16,523,217,254.71 2.38% 4.76% 7.14% 9.51% 11.89%
Bank of the Philippine Islands 21,273,873,593.43 92,180,981,372.08 2.31% 4.62% 6.92% 9.23% 11.54%
Maybank Philippines Inc. 1,581,335,067.22 7,239,824,313.81 2.18% 4.37% 6.55% 8.74% 10.92%
Philippine Bank of Communications 946,182,350.55 5,411,642,825.75 1.75% 3.50% 5.25% 6.99% 8.74%
Internationale Nederlanden Groep Bank 453,928,750.00 2,647,280,603.37 1.71% 3.43% 5.14% 6.86% 8.57%
HongKong & Shanghai Banking Corporation 883,495,099.77 5,411,909,952.04 1.63% 3.27% 4.90% 6.53% 8.16%
Robinsons Bank Corporation 571,583,000.00 5,584,142,208.47 1.02% 2.05% 3.07% 4.09% 5.12%
ANZ Banking Group Ltd 96,449,188.22 2,494,420,532.05 0.39% 0.77% 1.16% 1.55% 1.93%
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. 28,514,155.55 1,200,501,701.00 0.24% 0.48% 0.71% 0.95% 1.19%
Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Banking Corporation 126,415,493.33 6,346,182,232.09 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00%
Bank of America N.A. 6,655,115.17 602,446,709.20 0.11% 0.22% 0.33% 0.44% 0.55%
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd - Manila Branch 17,226,890.96 1,609,503,869.46 0.11% 0.21% 0.32% 0.43% 0.54%
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd 2,591,619.65 1,075,343,701.11 0.02% 0.05% 0.07% 0.10% 0.12%
BDO Private Bank, Inc. 0.00 5,084,420,800.74 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
JP Morgan Chase Bank National Association 0.00 1,402,016,000.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Al Amanah Islamic Bank of the Philippines NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Grand Total 293,958,690,543.61 766,041,569,161.05 3.84% 7.67% 11.51% 15.35% 19.19%

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