Editor's Note: This update reflects the true Real Estate & Construction Loans to GDP ratio published last June 25, 2012. The previous figures were published in error.
Is there a real estate bubble in the Philippines? Several people, including Finance Secretary
Cesar Purisima and high profile businessman
Andrew Masigan have asked this question earlier this year. Both have come to the conclusion that there is no real estate bubble - yet.
But does the data bear this out? Based on the data available from the banking system, if we are in a real estate bubble, we are only in the beginnings of one. Given the growth in our country's GDP since 1999, Real Estate Loans, on an absolute basis, have picked up noticeably since 2008, but construction loans have not.
On a relative basis, Real Estate and Construction Loans as a percentage of GDP have dropped considerably since 1999, from a high of 7.56% of GDP in June 1999 to a low of 4.43% of GDP as of March 2007. Today, that ratio has gone up considerably, and now stands at 6.46% as of September 2011. So Real Estate and Construction Loans relative to GDP have bottomed out but not have approached near peak levels of 7.56% of GDP. It is important to note that the availability of banking data available on www.bsp.gov.ph goes back only to March 1999. The previous peak levels could have been much higher.
Philippine Banking System |
Real Estate & Construction Loans vs. GDP |
March 1999 to September 2011 |
In Peso Billions |
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Quarter/Year |
Real Estate Loans |
Construction Loans |
Real Estate & Construction Loans |
GDP (Current) |
March 1999 |
198 |
57 |
255 |
3,244 |
June 1999 |
222 |
56 |
278 |
3,244 |
September 1999 |
221 |
55 |
275 |
3,244 |
December 1999 |
190 |
54 |
243 |
3,244 |
March 2000 |
213 |
51 |
264 |
3,581 |
June 2000 |
220 |
49 |
269 |
3,581 |
September 2000 |
180 |
89 |
269 |
3,581 |
December 2000 |
224 |
47 |
271 |
3,581 |
March 2001 |
203 |
51 |
255 |
3,889 |
June 2001 |
205 |
43 |
248 |
3,889 |
September 2001 |
204 |
44 |
249 |
3,889 |
December 2001 |
204 |
42 |
246 |
3,889 |
March 2002 |
212 |
43 |
255 |
4,198 |
June 2002 |
207 |
40 |
247 |
4,198 |
September 2002 |
203 |
40 |
242 |
4,198 |
December 2002 |
204 |
36 |
239 |
4,198 |
March 2003 |
250 |
47 |
297 |
4,548 |
June 2003 |
250 |
46 |
296 |
4,548 |
September 2003 |
261 |
48 |
309 |
4,548 |
December 2003 |
262 |
47 |
310 |
4,548 |
March 2004 |
260 |
53 |
312 |
5,120 |
June 2004 |
257 |
37 |
294 |
5,120 |
September 2004 |
255 |
36 |
291 |
5,120 |
December 2004 |
262 |
36 |
297 |
5,120 |
March 2005 |
252 |
41 |
293 |
5,678 |
June 2005 |
253 |
35 |
289 |
5,678 |
September 2005 |
268 |
35 |
304 |
5,678 |
December 2005 |
258 |
34 |
293 |
5,678 |
March 2006 |
273 |
33 |
306 |
6,271 |
June 2006 |
288 |
33 |
321 |
6,271 |
September 2006 |
284 |
33 |
318 |
6,271 |
December 2006 |
291 |
34 |
325 |
6,271 |
March 2007 |
272 |
34 |
305 |
6,893 |
June 2007 |
287 |
37 |
324 |
6,893 |
September 2007 |
285 |
37 |
321 |
6,893 |
December 2007 |
290 |
36 |
326 |
6,893 |
March 2008 |
290 |
30 |
320 |
7,721 |
June 2008 |
339 |
34 |
373 |
7,721 |
September 2008 |
358 |
37 |
396 |
7,721 |
December 2008 |
400 |
41 |
441 |
7,721 |
March 2009 |
393 |
32 |
426 |
8,026 |
June 2009 |
418 |
31 |
449 |
8,026 |
September 2009 |
420 |
32 |
452 |
8,026 |
December 2009 |
448 |
33 |
481 |
8,026 |
March 2010 |
455 |
34 |
488 |
9,003 |
June 2010 |
465 |
35 |
500 |
9,003 |
September 2010 |
466 |
35 |
502 |
9,003 |
December 2010 |
497 |
36 |
534 |
9,003 |
March 2011 |
521 |
37 |
558 |
9,361 |
June 2011 |
542 |
40 |
581 |
9,361 |
September 2011 |
564 |
41 |
605 |
9,361 |
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Source: www.bsp.gov.ph and www.nscbgov.ph |
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